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Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress

  • Isabelle Distinguin
  • Philippe Rous
  • Amine Tarazi


We assess the extent to which stock market information can be used to estimate leading indicators of bank financial distress. We specify a logit early warning model, designed for European banks, which tests if market based indicators add predictive value to models relying on accounting data. We also study the robustness of the link between market information and financial downgrading in the light of the safety net and asymmetric information hypotheses. Some of our results support the use of market-related indicators. Other results show that the accuracy of the predictive power depends on the extent to which bank liabilities are market traded.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Financial Services Research.

Volume (Year): 30 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 151-176

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:30:y:2006:i:2:p:151-176
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  1. Crouzille, Celine & Lepetit, Laetitia & Tarazi, Amine, 2004. "Bank stock volatility, news and asymmetric information in banking: an empirical investigation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4-5), pages 443-461.
  2. Amine Tarazi & Alain Sauviat & Daniel Goyeau, 2001. "Marché financier et évaluation du risque bancaire. Les agences de notation contribuent-elles à améliorer la discipline de marché ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 265-283.
  3. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
  4. Billett, Matthew T. & Garfinkel, Jon A. & O'Neal, Edward S., 1998. "The cost of market versus regulatory discipline in banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 333-358, June.
  5. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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