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Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress

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  • Isabelle Distinguin
  • Philippe Rous
  • Amine Tarazi

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Abstract

We assess the extent to which stock market information can be used to estimate leading indicators of bank financial distress. We specify a logit early warning model, designed for European banks, which tests if market based indicators add predictive value to models relying on accounting data. We also study the robustness of the link between market information and financial downgrading in the light of the safety net and asymmetric information hypotheses. Some of our results support the use of market-related indicators. Other results show that the accuracy of the predictive power depends on the extent to which bank liabilities are market traded.
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Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Distinguin & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2006. "Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 151-176, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:30:y:2006:i:2:p:151-176
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-0016-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    3. Crouzille, Celine & Lepetit, Laetitia & Tarazi, Amine, 2004. "Bank stock volatility, news and asymmetric information in banking: an empirical investigation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4-5), pages 443-461.
    4. Billett, Matthew T. & Garfinkel, Jon A. & O'Neal, Edward S., 1998. "The cost of market versus regulatory discipline in banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 333-358, June.
    5. Daniel Goyeau & Alain Sauviat & Amine Tarazi, 2001. "Marché financier et évaluation du risque bancaire. Les agences de notation contribuent-elles à améliorer la discipline de marché ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(2), pages 265-283.
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    1. repec:taf:jbemgt:v:18:y:2017:i:5:p:954-973 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Isabelle Distinguin & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2006. "Contrôle prudentiel et détection des difficultés financières des banques. Quel est l'apport de l'information de marché ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(3), pages 497-506.
    3. Tristan Auvray & Olivier Brossard, 2012. "Too Dispersed to Monitor? Ownership Dispersion, Monitoring, and the Prediction of Bank Distress," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 685-714, June.
    4. Apanard P. Prabha & Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Market Discipline for Financial Institutions and Markets for Information," Chapters,in: Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 13 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2013. "Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 229-257, December.
    6. Calluzzo, Paul & Dong, Gang Nathan, 2015. "Has the financial system become safer after the crisis? The changing nature of financial institution risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 233-248.
    7. Isabelle Distinguin & Iftekhar Hasan & Amine Tarazi, 2013. "Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 471-500, August.
    8. Isabelle Distinguin & Iftekhar Hasan & Amine Tarazi, 2010. "The use of accounting data to predict bank financial distress in MENA countries," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 332-356.
    9. Chen, Sichong, 2011. "Capital ratios and the cross-section of bank stock returns: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 99-114, April.
    10. Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES ) & Frédéric DUCROZET (PSE - Crédit Agricole) & Adrian ROCHE (EconomiX - Crédit Agricole), 2007. "An Early Warning Model for EU banks with Detection of the Adverse Selection Effect," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2007-08, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    11. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter, 2015. "Eurozone bank resolution and Bail-In - Intervention, triggers and writedowns," Working Papers 201501, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    12. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Davide Avino & Thomas Conlon & John Cotter, 2016. "Credit Default Swaps as Indicators of Bank Financial Distress," Working Papers 201601, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    14. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel, 2014. "Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 126-147.
    15. Helder Mendonça & Renato Villela Loures, 2009. "Market discipline in the Brazilian banking industry: an analysis for the subordinated debt holders," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 286-307, December.
    16. Martin Eling & Dieter Kiesenbauer, 2012. "Does Surplus Participation Reflect Market Discipline? An Analysis of the German Life Insurance Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 159-185, December.
    17. repec:hal:journl:hal-00785449 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.
    19. David VanHoose, 2007. "Market Discipline and Supervisory Discretion in Banking: Reinforcing or Conflicting Pillars of Basel II?," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-06, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    20. Akhigbe, Aigbe & Madura, Jeff & Marciniak, Marek, 2012. "Bank capital and exposure to the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 377-392.
    21. Andrievskaya, Irina & Semenova, Maria, 2013. "Market discipline and the Russian interbank market," BOFIT Discussion Papers 29/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    22. Albulescu Claudiu Tiberiu & Coroiu Sorina Ioana, 2009. "Early Warning System For The Romanian Banking Sector: The Caampl Approach," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 458-466, May.
    23. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Philip Molyneux, 2018. "Beyond Common Equity - The Influence of Secondary Capital on Bank Insolvency Risk," Working Papers 201806, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    24. Selçuk Caner & Süheyla Özyıldırım & A. Ungan, 2012. "How Sensitive Are Bank Managers to Shareholder Value?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 187-205, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank; market discipline; bank risk; market prices; G21; G28;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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