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Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Coffinet

    (Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Adrian Pop

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes)

  • Muriel Tiesset

    (Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank's exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of the most actively traded option contracts on financial firms' equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, the combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world, full of doubts and uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Working Papers hal-00547744, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00547744
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00547744v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Matros & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2012. "Measuring Option Implied Degree of Distress in the US Financial Sector Using the Entropy Principle," Working Papers 123, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Matros, Philipp & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2012. "Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle," Discussion Papers 30/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 26-36.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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