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Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle

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  • Matros, Philipp
  • Vilsmeier, Johannes

Abstract

We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS). Moreover, we also derive an indicator for the systemic risk in the US financial sector. We find that the PoDs are superior to CDS in identifying the high risk banks prior to the Lehman crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Matros, Philipp & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2012. "Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle," Discussion Papers 30/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Capuano, 2008. "The Option-iPoD," IMF Working Papers 08/194, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    3. Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Working Papers hal-00547744, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entropy Principle; Risk Neutral Density; Probability of Default; Financial Stability Indicator; Credit Default Swaps;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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