Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle
We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS). Moreover, we also derive an indicator for the systemic risk in the US financial sector. We find that the PoDs are superior to CDS in identifying the high risk banks prior to the Lehman crisis.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt|
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christian Capuano, 2008. "The Option-iPoD," IMF Working Papers 08/194, International Monetary Fund.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2010.
"Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics,"
- Coffinet, J. & Pop, A. & Tiesset, M., 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Working papers 311, Banque de France.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.