The general mixture-diffusion SDE and its relationship with an uncertain-volatility option model with volatility-asset decorrelation
In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE) admitting a unique strong solution and whose density evolves as a mixture of Gaussian densities. We present an interesting result on the comparison between the instantaneous and the terminal correlation between the obtained process and its squared diffusion coefficient. As an application to mathematical finance, we construct diffusion processes whose marginal densities are mixtures of lognormal densities. We explain how such processes can be used to model the market smile phenomenon. We show that the lognormal mixture dynamics is the one-dimensional diffusion version of a suitable uncertain volatility model, and suitably reinterpret the earlier correlation result. We explore numerically the relationship between the future smile structures of both the diffusion and the uncertain volatility versions.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Related publication in Brigo, D., Mercurio, F., and Sartorelli, G., Alternative Asset Price Dynamics and Volatility Smile, Quantitative Finance, Vol 3, N. 3. (2003) pp. 173-183|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
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- Damiano Brigo & Fabio Mercurio & Giulio Sartorelli, 2003. "Alternative asset-price dynamics and volatility smile," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 173-183.
- Damiano Brigo & Fabio Mercurio, 2008. "Discrete Time vs Continuous Time Stock-price Dynamics and implications for Option Pricing," Papers 0812.4010, arXiv.org.
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- Brigo, Damiano, 2000. "On SDEs with marginal laws evolving in finite-dimensional exponential families," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 127-134, August.
- Carol Alexander & Sujit Narayanan, 2001. "Option Pricing with Normal Mixture Returns: Modelling Excess Kurtosis and Uncertanity in Volatility," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-10, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Dec 2001.
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