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Bias reduction in spot volatility estimation from options

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  • Todorov, Viktor
  • Zhang, Yang

Abstract

We consider the problem of nonparametric spot volatility estimation from options that is robust to time-variation in volatility and presence of jumps in the underlying asset price. Using a higher-order expansion of the characteristic function of the underlying price increment over shrinking time intervals and option-based estimates of the latter over two distinct horizons, we achieve asymptotic bias-reduction in spot volatility estimation, relative to existing methods, that is due to time-variation in volatility and presence of jumps. Further asymptotic improvement is achieved by de-biasing the volatility estimator using an estimate for the bias in it due to the small jumps in the price process. The gains from the newly-developed volatility estimation approach are illustrated on simulated data and in an empirical application.

Suggested Citation

  • Todorov, Viktor & Zhang, Yang, 2023. "Bias reduction in spot volatility estimation from options," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 53-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:234:y:2023:i:1:p:53-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Characteristic function; Higher-order asymptotic expansion; Jumps; Options; Volatility estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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