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Time-varying jump tails

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  • Bollerslev, Tim
  • Todorov, Viktor

Abstract

We develop new methods for the estimation of time-varying risk-neutral jump tails in asset returns. In contrast to existing procedures based on tightly parameterized models, our approach imposes much fewer structural assumptions, relying on extreme-value theory approximations together with short-maturity options. The new estimation approach explicitly allows the parameters characterizing the shape of the right and the left tails to differ, and importantly for the tail shape parameters to change over time. On implementing the procedures with a panel of S&P 500 options, our estimates clearly suggest the existence of highly statistically significant temporal variation in both of the tails. We further relate this temporal variation in the shape and the magnitude of the jump tails to the underlying return variation through the formulation of simple time series models for the tail parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor, 2014. "Time-varying jump tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 168-180.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:183:y:2014:i:2:p:168-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.05.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:empfin:v:51:y:2019:i:c:p:138-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2017. "Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1335-1386, June.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Fusari, Nicola & Todorov, Viktor, 2015. "The risk premia embedded in index options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 558-584.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2015. "The Pricing of Short-Term market Risk: Evidence from Weekly Options," NBER Working Papers 21491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The risk premium of gold," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-159.
    6. repec:eee:econom:v:203:y:2018:i:2:p:256-266 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Xu, Lai, 2015. "Tail risk premia and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-134.
    8. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan & Escribano Sáez, Álvaro, 2019. "Score-driven time series models with dynamic shape : an application to the Standard & Poor's 500 index," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28133, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    9. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Ayala, Astrid & Escribano, Álvaro, 2017. "Dynamic conditional score models with time-varying location, scale and shape parameters," UC3M Working papers. Economics 25043, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. repec:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:2:p:325-350 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Escribano Sáez, Álvaro & Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan & Ayala, Astrid, 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of score-driven models with dynamic shape parameters : an application to Monte Carlo value-at-risk," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28638, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market risk; Options; Risk-neutral distributions; Jumps; Time-varying jump tails; Extreme value theory;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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