Circuit Breakers and the Tail Index of Equity Returns
Using the tail index of returns on U.S. equities as a summary measure of extreme behavior, we examine changes in the equity markets surrounding the development of program trading for portfolio insurance, the crash of 1987, and the subsequent introduction of circuit breakers and other changes in market architecture. Recently-developed tests for the null of constancy of the tail index, versus the alternative of a change at an unknown date, permit inference on changes in extreme behavior over a long time period while allowing for second-moment dependence in the return data. We find strong evidence of a decrease in the tail index (increase in the probability of extreme events) around the beginning of large-scale program trading, and weaker, but still substantial, evidence of further significant change in the tail index following the introduction of circuit breakers. Point estimates of the tail index suggest that the tail index may have roughly regained pre-program trading levels. More generally, the results tend to suggest that long samples of U.S. equity returns should not be treated as samples from a single distribution function, particularly in examining extremes. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK|
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://jfec.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- G. J. Santoni & Tung Liu, 1993. "Circuit breakers and stock market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 261-277, 05.
- Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1988.
"Limit Moves And Price Resolution: The Case Of The Treasury Bond Futures Markets,"
177, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
- Christopher K. Ma & Ramesh P. Rao & R. Stephen Sears, 1989. "Limit moves and price resolution: The case of the treasury bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 321-335, 08.
- Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994.
"Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
- Loretan, M. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1992. "Testing the Covariance Stationarity of Heavy-Tailed Time Series: An Overview of the Theory with Applications to Several Financial Datasets," Working papers 9208, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.
- G. Booth & John Broussard, 1998. "Setting NYSE Circuit Breaker Triggers," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 187-204, June.
- Carmela Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 633-663.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:2:y:2004:i:1:p:109-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.