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Margin Exceedences for European Stock Index Futures using Extreme Value Theory

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  • Cotter, John

Abstract

Futures exchanges require a margin requirement that ensures their competitiveness and protects against default risk. This paper applies extreme value theory in computing unconditional optimal margin levels for a selection of stock index futures traded on European exchanges. The theoretical framework focuses explicitly on tail returns, thereby properly accounting for large levels of risk in measuring prudent margin levels. The paper finds that common margin requirements are sufficient for each contract, with the exception of the Norwegian OBX index, in providing equitable costs for traders. In addition, the paper shows the underestimation bias in margin levels that are calculated assuming normality. Differing margin requirements reflect the unconditional and conditional trading environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotter, John, 2000. "Margin Exceedences for European Stock Index Futures using Extreme Value Theory," MPRA Paper 3534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3534
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cotter, John, 2007. "Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
    2. John Cotter, 2004. "Minimum capital requirement calculations for UK futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 193-220, February.
    3. Upper, Christian & Werner, Thomas, 2002. "Time Variation in the Tail Behaviour of Bund Futures Returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. John Cotter & Francois Longin, 2011. "Margin Requirements with Intraday Dynamics," Working Papers 200519, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    5. Robert A. Jones & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "Derivatives Clearing, Default Risk, and Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 373-400, June.
    6. John Cotter, 2004. "Realized volatility and minimum capital requirements," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 20, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements," MPRA Paper 3495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yang-Ho Park & Nicole Abruzzo, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 65-100, February.
    10. Kellner, Ralf & Gatzert, Nadine, 2013. "Estimating the basis risk of index-linked hedging strategies using multivariate extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4353-4367.
    11. Abruzzo, Nicole & Park, Yang-Ho, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-86, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Chen-Yu Chen & Jian-Hsin Chou & Hung-Gay Fung & Yiuman Tse, 2017. "Setting the futures margin with price limits: the case for single-stock futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 219-237, January.
    13. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Extreme spectral risk measures: An application to futures clearinghouse margin requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3469-3485, December.
    14. Cotter, John, 2004. "Modelling extreme financial returns of global equity markets," MPRA Paper 3532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Thomas Werner & Christian Upper, 2004. "Time variation in the tail behavior of Bund future returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 387-398, April.
    16. John Cotter, 2004. "Downside risk for European equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 707-716.
    17. John Cotter, 2005. "Extreme risk in futures contracts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 489-492.
    18. Cotter, John & Longin, Francois, 2004. "Margin setting with high-frequency data," MPRA Paper 3528, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    19. Lam, Kin & Yu, P.L.H. & Lee, P.H., 2010. "A margin scheme that advises on when to change required margin," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 524-530, November.
    20. Colletaz, Gilbert & Hurlin, Christophe & Pérignon, Christophe, 2013. "The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3854.
    21. Raymond Knott & Marco Polenghi, 2006. "Assessing central counterparty margin coverage on futures contracts using GARCH models," Bank of England working papers 287, Bank of England.
    22. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "What Happens when Peter can't Pay Paul: Risk Management at Futures Exchange Clearinghouses," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21087, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    23. John G. Galbraith & Serguei Zernov, 2006. "Extreme Dependence In The Nasdaq And S&P Composite Indexes," Departmental Working Papers 2006-14, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    24. Chiu, Chien-Liang & Chiang, Shu-Mei & Hung, Jui-Cheng & Chen, Yu-Lung, 2006. "Clearing margin system in the futures markets—Applying the value-at-risk model to Taiwanese data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 353-374.
    25. Cotter, John, 2007. "Extreme risk in Asian equity markets," MPRA Paper 3536, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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