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Tail Estimates of East European Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Koedijk, Kees G
  • Kool, Clemens J M

Abstract

In the literature, a consensus exists that distributions of exchange-rate returns are fat tailed. The authors use a nonparametric tail-index estimator based on extreme-value theory to shed light on some of the characteristics of the empirical distribution of black-market exchange-rate returns for seven East European currencies between 1955 and 1990, focusing on the information in the tails of the distribution. They modify an existing tail-index estimator to take into account information in both tails. The results support the existence of finite second moments in exchange-rate returns. Implicitly, the sum-stable distribution is rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1992. "Tail Estimates of East European Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 83-96, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:1:p:83-96
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "The tail risks of FX return distributions: A comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 146-154, September.
    2. Serttas, Fatma Ozgu, 2010. "Essays on infinite-variance stable errors and robust estimation procedures," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002742, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Barry Falk & Chun-Hsuan Wang, 2003. "Testing long-run PPP with infinite-variance returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 471-484.
    4. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Inter-temporal Savings, Current Account Dynamics and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 3279, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Kevin Dowd & John Cotter, 2011. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Market Transactions," Working Papers 200746, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    6. John Cotter, 2004. "Downside risk for European equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 707-716.
    7. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2012. "German unification and intra- European imbalances," Chapters,in: European Integration in a Global Economy, chapter 7, pages 53-68 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
    9. Jungjun Choi & In Choi, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Autoregressive Models with a Near Unit Root and Cauchy Errors," Working Papers 1612, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    10. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    11. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2004. "Successful and Unsuccessful Attacks: Evaluating the Stability of the East Asian Currencies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    12. Deo, Rohit S., 2002. "On testing the adequacy of stable processes under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 257-270, March.
    13. Chen, Mei-Yuan & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2001. "Testing parameter constancy in models with infinite variance errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 11-18, July.
    14. Cotter, John, 2001. "Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
    15. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2005. "Incidence of Speculative Attacks on Rupiah During the Pre- and Post- 1997 Financial Crisis," School of Economics Working Papers 2005-07, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    16. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. Yang, Yaxing & Ling, Shiqing, 2017. "Self-weighted LAD-based inference for heavy-tailed threshold autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 368-381.
    18. Phillips, Peter C B & McFarland, James W & McMahon, Patrick C, 1996. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, Jan.-Feb..
    19. Alan Speight & David McMillan, 2001. "Cointegration and predictability in prereform east European black-market exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(12), pages 755-759.
    20. Speight, Alan E. H. & McMillan, David G., 2001. "Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-378, June.
    21. Caner, Mehmet, 1998. "Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 155-175, June.
    22. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.

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