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Fat-tails and house prices in OECD countries

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  • Victor Pontines

Abstract

It is a well-known stylized fact that the distributions of financial asset returns are non-normal and fat-tailed. In this study, we explore whether this stylized fact also applies to the log changes in house prices. Using house price indices data for 16 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, we find that there is an apparent tail-fatness in the empirical distribution of log changes in house prices. Furthermore, the Student's t provides an adequate fit for almost all the house price indices under consideration.

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  • Victor Pontines, 2010. "Fat-tails and house prices in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1373-1377.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:14:p:1373-1377
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850902967514
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    Cited by:

    1. David Zimmer, 2015. "Asymmetric dependence in house prices: evidence from USA and international data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 161-183, August.
    2. R. Kelley Pace & Raffaella Calabrese, 2022. "Ignoring Spatial and Spatiotemporal Dependence in the Disturbances Can Make Black Swans Appear Grey," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2021. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices—You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Vincent Choon-Seng Lim & Nurulhuda Mohd. Hussain, 2014. "Stock Market Performance: Foretelling and Crisis Signalling?," Working Papers wp01, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    5. Ouandlous, Arav & Barkoulas, John T. & Alhaj-Yaseen, Yaseen, 2018. "Persistence and discontinuity in the VIX dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 333-344.
    6. Siregar, Reza & Pontines, Victor & Mohd Hussain, Nurulhuda, 2010. "The US Subprime Crises and Extreme Market Pressures in Asia," MPRA Paper 22995, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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