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Tail behaviour of the Euro

Author

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  • John Cotter

Abstract

This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimates of tail exchange rate changes. The findings are encouraging. The Euro’s common risk measures do not deviate substantially from other currencies. Also, the Euro is stable in the face of speculative pressure. For example, the findings consistently show the Euro being less risky than the Yen, and having similar inherent risk to the Deutsche Mark, the currency that it is essentially replacing.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cotter, 2004. "Tail behaviour of the Euro," Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers 10197/1140, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:rru:cfmwps:10197/1140
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1140
    File Function: First version, 2004
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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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