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Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options

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  • TORBEN G. ANDERSEN
  • NICOLA FUSARI
  • VIKTOR TODOROV

Abstract

We study short-term market risks implied by weekly S&P 500 index options. The introduction of weekly options has dramatically shifted the maturity profile of traded options over the last five years, with a substantial proportion now having expiry within one week. Such short-dated options provide a direct way to study volatility and jump risks. Unlike longer-dated options, they are largely insensitive to the risk of intertemporal shifts in the economic environment. Adopting a novel semi-nonparametric approach, we uncover variation in the negative jump tail risk which is not spanned by market volatility and helps predict future equity returns. Incidents of tail shape shifts coincide with mispricing of standard parametric models for longer-dated options. As such, our approach allows for easy identification of periods of heightened concerns about negative tail events that are not always "signaled" by the level of market volatility and elude standard asset pricing models.
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  • Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2017. "Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1335-1386, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:72:y:2017:i:3:p:1335-1386
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jofi.2017.72.issue-3
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    3. Hui Chen & Antoine Didisheim & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Deep Structural Estimation:With an Application to Option Pricing," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 21.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
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    6. H. Peter Boswijk & Roger J. A. Laeven & Evgenii Vladimirov, 2022. "Estimating Option Pricing Models Using a Characteristic Function Based Linear State Space Representation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-000/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Hamed Ghanbari & Michael Oancea & Stylianos Perrakis, 2021. "Shedding light on a dark matter: Jump diffusion and option‐implied investor preferences," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), pages 244-286, March.
    8. Hui Chen & Antoine Didisheim & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Deep Structural Estimation: With an Application to Option Pricing," Papers 2102.09209, arXiv.org.
    9. Amengual, Dante & Xiu, Dacheng, 2018. "Resolution of policy uncertainty and sudden declines in volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 297-315.
    10. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Stancu, Andrei & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The information content of short-term options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    11. Wan, Xiangwei & Yang, Nian, 2021. "Hermite expansion of transition densities and European option prices for multivariate diffusions with jumps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Johnson, James A. & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Paye, Bradley S., 2022. "Jumps in stock prices: New insights from old data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Stylianos Perrakis, 2022. "From innovation to obfuscation: continuous time finance fifty years later," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(3), pages 369-401, September.
    14. H. Peter Boswijk & Roger J. A. Laeven & Evgenii Vladimirov, 2022. "Estimating Option Pricing Models Using a Characteristic Function-Based Linear State Space Representation," Papers 2210.06217, arXiv.org.
    15. Hua, Shengya & Liu, Jingchen & Cheng, T.C.E. & Zhai, Xin, 2019. "Financing and ordering strategies for a supply chain under the option contract," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 100-121.
    16. Ging-Ginq Pan & Yung-Ming Shiu & Tu-Cheng Wu, 2019. "Is trading in the shortest-term index options profitable?," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 169-201, April.
    17. Augustin, Patrick & Brenner, Menachem & Grass, Gunnar & Orłowski, Piotr & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2022. "Informed options strategies before corporate events," LawFin Working Paper Series 39, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    18. Kaeck, Andreas & Rodrigues, Paulo & Seeger, Norman J., 2018. "Model Complexity and Out-of-Sample Performance: Evidence from S&P 500 Index Returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-29.
    19. Federico M. Bandi & Aleksey Kolokolov & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renòo, 2020. "Zeros," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3466-3479, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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