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The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets

Author

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  • Torben G. Andersen

    (Northwestern University and CREATES)

  • Nicola Fusari

    (The Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School)

  • Viktor Todorov

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

We explore the pricing of tail risk as manifest in index options across international equity markets. The risk premium associated with negative tail events displays persistent shifts, unrelated to volatility. This tail risk premium is a potent predictor of future equity returns, while option-implied volatility only forecasts the future return variation. Hence, compensation for negative jump risk is the primary driver of the equity premium across all indices, whereas the reward for pure diffusive variance risk is largely unrelated to future equity returns. We also document pronounced commonalities, suggesting a high degree of integration among the major global equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2018. "The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2018-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2018-02
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ke-Li Xu & Junjie Guo, 2021. "A New Test for Multiple Predictive Regression," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-001 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Todorov, Viktor & Ubukata, Masato, 2021. "Tail risk and return predictability for the Japanese equity market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 344-363.
    5. Prodosh Simlai, 2021. "Accrual mispricing, value-at-risk, and expected stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1487-1517, November.
    6. Liang Chen & Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo, 2021. "Quantile Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 875-910, March.
    7. Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Stoykov, Marian Z., 2023. "Tail index estimation in the presence of covariates: Stock returns’ tail risk dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2266-2284.
    8. Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "International tail risk and World Fear," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 244-259.
    9. Wong, Patrick, 2023. "Explaining intraday crude oil returns with higher order risk-neutral moments," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Jozef Barunik & Matej Nevrla, 2022. "Common Idiosyncratic Quantile Risk," Papers 2208.14267, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices over 150 years: The role of tail risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2023. "Tail risks and forecastability of stock returns of advanced economies: evidence from centuries of data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 466-481, March.
    13. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Olaniran, Abeeb & Tchankam, Jean Paul, 2022. "Oil tail risk and the tail risk of the US Dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Systemic Tail Risk: High-Frequency Measurement, Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 2023-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Masato Ubukata, 2022. "A time-varying jump tail risk measure using high-frequency options data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2633-2653, November.
    17. Maximilian Ahrens & Deniz Erdemlioglu & Michael McMahon & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches," Working Papers 2023-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 21 Feb 2024.
    18. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Li, Zhenxiong & Yao, Xingzhi & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2023. "On the right jump tail inferred from the VIX market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity Risk Premium; International Option Markets; Predictability; Tail Risk; Variance Risk Premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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