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Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

  • Coffinet, J.
  • Pop, A.
  • Tiesset, M.

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank’s exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of the most actively traded option contracts on financial firms’ equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, the combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world, full of doubts and uncertainties.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 311.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:311
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

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  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
  2. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
  3. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Working Paper 2001-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
  6. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Paper Series 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt and bank capital reform," Working Paper Series WP-00-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Wall, Larry D., 2009. "Prudential Discipline for Financial Firms: Micro, Macro, and Market Structures," ADBI Working Papers 176, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  9. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  10. Jagtiani, Julapa & Lemieux, Catharine, 2001. "Market discipline prior to bank failure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(2-3), pages 313-324.
  11. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
  12. Swidler, Steve & Wilcox, James A., 2002. "Information about bank risk in options prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1033-1057, May.
  13. Boyd, John, 2000. "Comment on Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What, When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 668-70, August.
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