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Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

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Listed:
  • Coffinet, J.
  • Pop, A.
  • Tiesset, M.

Abstract

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank’s exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of the most actively traded option contracts on financial firms’ equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, the combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world, full of doubts and uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Coffinet, J. & Pop, A. & Tiesset, M., 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Working papers 311, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:311
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matros, Philipp & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2012. "Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle," Discussion Papers 30/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Philipp Matros & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2012. "Measuring Option Implied Degree of Distress in the US Financial Sector Using the Entropy Principle," Working Papers 123, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    3. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 26-36.
    4. Marco Alderighi & Claudio A. Piga, 2008. "The Circular City with Heterogenous Firms," Working Paper series 16_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial distress; Financial system oversight; Market discipline; Options; Implied volatility; Survival analysis.;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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