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Distance to default, subordinated debt, and distress indicators in the banking industry

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  • Paul Kato
  • Jens Hagendorff

Abstract

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the inadequacy of present supervisory arrangements to identify reliable ex‐ante indicators of banking distress. For a sample of US bank holding companies, we analyse the extent to which distance to default based on market data can be explained using accounting‐based indicators of risk. We show that a larger number of bank fundamentals help predict default for institutions that issue subordinated debt. For banks that issue sub‐debt, we find that higher charter values and low bank capitalizations further increase the power of bank fundamentals to predict default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Kato & Jens Hagendorff, 2010. "Distance to default, subordinated debt, and distress indicators in the banking industry," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(4), pages 853-870, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:853-870
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2010.00354.x
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    2. Mamiza Haq & Necmi K. Avkiran & Amine Tarazi, 2019. "Does market discipline impact bank charter value? The case for Australia and Canada," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(1), pages 253-276, March.
    3. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "In search of a measure of banking sector distress: empirical study of CESEE banking sectors," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 242-257, August.
    4. Ulf Mohrmann & Jan Riepe, 2019. "The link between the share of banks’ Level 3 assets and their default risk and default costs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1163-1189, May.
    5. Chiaramonte, Laura & Croci, Ettore & Poli, Federica, 2015. "Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 111-131.
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    7. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Wilmar Cabrera-Rodríguez & Santiago Segovia-Baquero & Juan Sebastián Mariño-Montaña & Eduardo Yanquen, 2019. "Probabilidad de incumplimiento de entidades financieras colombianas: una aproximación estructural," Borradores de Economia 1097, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Necmi Avkiran & Lin Cai, 2014. "Identifying distress among banks prior to a major crisis using non-oriented super-SBM," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 217(1), pages 31-53, June.
    11. Wanke, Peter & Barros, Carlos P. & Faria, João R., 2015. "Financial distress drivers in Brazilian banks: A dynamic slacks approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(1), pages 258-268.

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