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Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Coffinet

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Adrian Pop

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes)

  • Muriel Tiesset

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank's exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of option contracts on financial firms' equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, their combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2013. "Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Post-Print hal-04212932, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04212932
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-012-0150-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Anureet Virk Sidhu & Pooja Jain & Satyendra Pratap Singh & Jagjeevan Kanoujiya & Aashi Rawal & Shailesh Rastogi & Venkata Mrudula Bhimavarapu, 2023. "Impact of Financial Distress on the Dividend Policy of Banks in India," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Bhakti Agarwal & Rahul Singh Gautam & Shailesh Rastogi, 2024. "Does financial distress impact the dividend payment of Indian firm?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Pop, Adrian & Pop, Diana, 2025. "Is the market tougher with riskier banks? Evidence from the pricing of bank debt securities during a financial turmoil episode," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 134.
    4. Saad Alsunbul & Basim Alzugaiby & Sajid Chaudhry & Rhada Boujlil, 2024. "The fatter the tail, the shorter the sail," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(1), pages 331-380, March.
    5. Pankaj Sinha & Sakshi Sharma, 2016. "Determinants of bank profits and its persistence in Indian Banks: a study in a dynamic panel data framework," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 7(1), pages 35-46, March.
    6. Aashi Rawal & Santosh Gopalkrishnan, 2024. "Impact of financial distress on the dividend policy of banks in India: evidence using panel data," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Ju, Yonghan & Jeon, Song Yi & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Behavioral technology credit scoring model with time-dependent covariates for stress test," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 910-919.
    8. Srivastava, Pranjal & Saurav, Sumit & Mishra, Abinash, 2025. "Does government ownership differently impact expected left-tail and volatility risk of bank stock? Evidence from options market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Barbara A. Bliss & Jeffrey A. Clark & R. Jared DeLisle, 2018. "Bank risk, financial stress, and bank derivative use," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 804-821, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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