IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

On The Spillover Of Exchangerate Risk Into Default Risk

Listed author(s):
  • Miloš Božović
  • Branko Urošević
  • Boško Živković
Registered author(s):

    In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreigncurrency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreigncurrency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://ea.ekof.bg.ac.rs/pdf/183/1_02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade in its journal Economic Annals.

    Volume (Year): 54 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 183 (October - December)
    Pages: 32-55

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:54:y:2009:i:183:p:32-55
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    KAMENICKA 6 - 11000 BEOGRAD

    Phone: (381 11) 302122
    Fax: (381 11) 639 560
    Web page: http://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Web: http://ea.ekof.bg.ac.rs/ Email:


    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Dan Galai & Zvi Wiener, 2012. "Credit Risk Spreads in Local and Foreign Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 883-901, 08.
    4. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2008. "Regulatory capital for market and credit risk interaction: is current regulation always conservative?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    5. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
    6. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
    7. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Andre O Santos & Jorge A Chan-Lau & Carlos I. Medeiros & Marcos R Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 09/162, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:54:y:2009:i:183:p:32-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Goran Petrić)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.