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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile

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  • Luis F. Céspedes
  • Marcelo Ochoa
  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This paper presents GMM empirical estimations of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for Chile. Our results tend to support the hybrid version of the NKPC, with an estimated backward-looking coefficient of about 0.4. The estimated Calvo coefficient, that captures the degree of price rigidity, assuming firm specific capital is about 0.65. This implies that prices are optimally adjusted on average every 3 quarters, approximately. Our results also indicate the existence of a structural break in the NKPC, which occurred when the inflation target converged to its long-run level (around 2000). We find evidence that the frequency of optimal price adjustment and the degree of indexation to past inflation have decreased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Aysun, Uluc, 2008. "Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 302-328, December.
    3. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    4. J. Marcelo Ochoa C., 2009. "Monetary Policy Efficiency in Chile were there any Improvements?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(1), pages 39-49, April.
    5. Volker Wieland, 2009. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation, and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 11, pages 413-450 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2010. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve empirical estimates for middle-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 555-570, June.
    7. repec:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:2:p:418-431 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:cml:moneta:v:iii:y:2015:i:1:p:25-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2009. "Sources of Uncertainty in Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 12, pages 451-509 Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Lavan Mahadeva & Juan Carlos parra, 2008. "Testing a DSGE model and its partner database," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004507, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. repec:wsi:medjxx:v:05:y:2013:i:03:n:s1793812013500168 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Juan De Dios Tena & Jorge Dresdner & Iván Araya, 2012. "A Multimarket Approach For Estimating A New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 20(1), pages 49-68, Spring.
    14. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 25-69, january-j.
    15. Selen Baser & Hande Kucuk & Fethi Ogunc, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1311, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    16. Alberto Naudon & Joaquín Vial, 2016. "The evolution of inflation in Chile since 2000," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 93-116 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo, 2011. "Estimación de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana para Colombia: 1990-2006," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, February.
    18. Man-Keung Tang & Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 11/209, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Pablo Pincheira B & Álvaro García M, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case Of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(1), pages 5-36, April.
    20. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2009. "Persistent Supply Shocks: A Pain in the Neck for Central Banks?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(3), pages 25-58, December.
    21. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 492, Central Bank of Chile.
    22. Joseph S. Vavra, 2014. "Time-Varying Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 19790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
    24. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:159-184 is not listed on IDEAS

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