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Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach

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  • ADAM HALE SHAPIRO

Abstract

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with generalized method of moments using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the firm's price‐decision problem. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant toward the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:4:p:627-666
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00130.x
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    2. Ashima Goyal & Vipasha Pandey, 2025. "Indian industrial pricing under inflation targeting," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2025-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Yhlas Sovbetov & Muhittin Kaplan, 2025. "Empirical examination of the stability of Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries," Papers 2511.22786, arXiv.org.
    4. Régis Barnichon & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(04), pages 1-05, February.

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