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Decreasing fertility, economic growth and the intergenerational wage gap

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  • Klaus Prettner

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  • Alexia Prskawetz

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Abstract

Persistent low fertility rates lead to lower population growth rates and eventually also to decreasing population sizes in most industrialized countries. There are fears that this demographic development is associated with declines in per capita GDP and possibly also increasing inequality of the wage distribution. We investigate whether this is true in the context of neoclassical growth models, augmented with endogenous fertility decisions and endogenous educational decisions. Furthermore we allow for imperfect substitutability across workers of different age in the production process and learning by doing effects as well as human capital depreciation. In particular, we assess the intergenerational wage redistribution effects which follow after a demographic change to persistent low fertility rates.
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Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Decreasing fertility, economic growth and the intergenerational wage gap," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 197-214, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:37:y:2010:i:2:p:197-214
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-010-9127-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    2. Becker, Gary S & Tomes, Nigel, 1976. "Child Endowments and the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 143-162, August.
    3. RobertJ. Willis, 1974. "Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," NBER Chapters,in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 25-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    5. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dedry, Antoine & Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre, 2017. "Aging, social security design, and capital accumulation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 145-155.
    2. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "R&D-Based Growth in the Post-Modern Era," VID Working Papers 1009, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    3. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998, November.
    4. Grafeneder-Weissteiner, Theresa & Prettner, Klaus, 2010. "Agglomeration processes in aging societies," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 1620, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Bilal Barakat & Johannes Holler & Klaus Prettner & Julia Schuster, 2010. "The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Labour and Education in Europe," VID Working Papers 1006, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    6. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
    7. Andrew Mason & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2012. "Population, wealth, and economicgrowth in Asia and the Pacific," Chapters,in: Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 2, pages 32-82 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population decline; Economic growth; Intergenerational wage gap; J13; O15; O16;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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