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The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

  • David E. Bloom

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Elizabeth T. Cafiero

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Mark E. McGovern

    ()

    (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

  • Klaus Prettner

    ()

    (University of Göttingen)

  • Anderson Stanciole

    ()

    (The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation)

  • Jonathan Weiss

    ()

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and UNICEF Supply Division, Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Samuel Bakkila

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Larry Rosenberg

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

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File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2013/PGDA_WP_107.pdf
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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 10713.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:10713
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda

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  1. David E. Bloom & Dan Chisholm & Eva Jane-Llopis & Klaus Prettner & Adam Stein & Andrea Feigl, 2011. "From Burden to "Best Buys": Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," PGDA Working Papers 7511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
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