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The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Bloom

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Elizabeth T. Cafiero

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Mark E. McGovern

    (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

  • Klaus Prettner

    (University of Göttingen)

  • Anderson Stanciole

    (The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation)

  • Jonathan Weiss

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and UNICEF Supply Division, Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Samuel Bakkila

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Larry Rosenberg

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & Elizabeth T. Cafiero & Mark E. McGovern & Klaus Prettner & Anderson Stanciole & Jonathan Weiss & Samuel Bakkila & Larry Rosenberg, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons," PGDA Working Papers 10713, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:10713
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. #HEJC papers for September 2013
      by academichealtheconomists in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2013-09-01 04:01:38

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    Cited by:

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    2. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Mark E. McGovern, 2016. "Progress and the Lack of Progress in Addressing Infant Health and Infant Health Inequalities in Ireland during the 20th Century," Economics Working Papers 16-05, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    5. Arokiasamy, Perianayagam & Uttamacharya, Uttamacharya & Jain, Kshipra, 2013. "Multiple Chronic Diseases and Their Linkages with Functional health and Subjective Wellbeing among adults in the low-middle income countries: An Analysis of SAGE Wave1 Data, 2007/10," MPRA Paper 54914, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2014.
    6. Mark E. McGovern & Aditi Krishna & Victor M. Aguayo & S.V. Subramanian, 2017. "A Review of the Evidence Linking Child Stunting to Economic Outcomes," CHaRMS Working Papers 17-03, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    7. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. Jinkook Lee & McGovern, Mark E. & David E. Bloom & P. Arokiasamy & Arun Risbud & Jennifer O?Brien & Varsha Kale & Peifeng Hu, 2015. "Education, Gender, and State-Level Gradients in the Health of Older Indians: Evidence from Biomarker Data," Working Paper 228841, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    9. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    10. Simiao Chen & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner & David E Bloom, 2018. "The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Alberto Bucci & Lorenzo Carbonari & Monia Ranalli & Giovanni Trovato, 2019. "Health and Development," CEIS Research Paper 470, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2021.
    12. Hiroaki Hayakawa, 2017. "Health-conscious consumer behavior," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, April.
    13. Pape Yona Boubacar Mane & Abdoulaye Diagne & Yao thibaut Kpegli, 2019. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Disease: Extension and Application in the context of Senegal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2904-2912.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health and Economic Development; Non-Communicable Disease; Growth Models; Cost-Effectiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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