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The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea

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  • David E. Bloom
  • Simiao Chen
  • Michael Kuhn
  • Mark E. McGovern
  • Les Oxley
  • Klaus Prettner

Abstract

We propose a novel framework to analyse the macroeconomic impact of noncommunicable diseases. We incorporate measures of disease prevalence into a human capital augmented production function, which enables us to determine the economic costs of chronic health conditions in terms of foregone gross domestic product (GDP). Unlike previously adopted frameworks, this approach allows us to account for i) variations in human capital for workers in different age groups, ii) mortality and morbidity effects of non-communicable diseases, and iii) the treatment costs of diseases. We apply our methodology to China, Japan, and South Korea, and estimate the economic burden of chronic conditions in five domains (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental health conditions). Overall, total losses associated with these non-communicable diseases over the period 2010-2030 are $16 trillion for China (measured in real USD with the base year 2010), $5.7 trillion for Japan, and $1.5 trillion for South Korea. Our results also highlight the limits of cost-effectiveness analysis by identifying some intervention strategies to reduce disease prevalence in China that are cost beneficial and therefore a rational use of resources, though they are not cost-effective as judged by conventional thresholds.

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  • David E. Bloom & Simiao Chen & Michael Kuhn & Mark E. McGovern & Les Oxley & Klaus Prettner, 2017. "The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," NBER Working Papers 23601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23601
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    Cited by:

    1. Simiao Chen & David E Bloom, 2019. "The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases associated with air pollution in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, April.
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    3. Adriana Posada-López & Javier Enrique Botero & Ricardo Antonio Pineda-Tamayo & Andrés A. Agudelo-Suárez, 2022. "The Effect of Periodontal Treatment on Clinical and Biological Indicators, Quality of Life, and Oral Health in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients: A Quasi-Experimental Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, February.
    4. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    6. Ben J. Heijdra & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Putting People Back into the Picture: Some Studies in Demographic Economics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 147-152, June.
    7. Simiao Chen & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner & David E Bloom, 2018. "The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Huan-Cheng Chang & Ting-Huan Chang & Hsiao-Yen Kang & Yu-Wei Chen & Sheng-Pyng Chen & Mei-Chin Wang & Jersey Liang, 2022. "Retention in Community Health Screening among Taiwanese Adults: A 9-Year Prospective Cohort Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-13, June.
    9. Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Macro-level efficiency of health expenditure: Estimates for 15 major economies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    10. Pape Yona Boubacar Mane & Abdoulaye Diagne & Yao thibaut Kpegli, 2019. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Disease: Extension and Application in the context of Senegal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2904-2912.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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