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The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea

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  • Bloom, David E.
  • Chen, Simiao
  • Kuhn, Michael
  • McGovern, Mark E.
  • Oxley, Les
  • Prettner, Klaus

Abstract

We propose a novel framework to analyze the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases. We incorporate measures of disease prevalence into a human capital augmented production function, which enables us to determine the economic burden of chronic health conditions in terms of foregone gross domestic product (GDP). Unlike earlier frameworks, this approach allows us to account for i) variations in human capital for workers in different age groups, ii) mortality and morbidity effects of non-communicable diseases, and iii) the treatment costs of diseases. We apply our methodology to China, Japan, and South Korea, and estimate the economic burden of chronic conditions in five domains (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental health conditions). Overall, total losses associated with these diseases over the period 2010–2030 are (measured in real USD with the base year 2010) estimated to be $7.7 trillion for China, $3.5 trillion for Japan, and $1 trillion for South Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:17:y:2020:i:c:s2212828x18300744
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.09.002
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    4. Chen, Simiao & Prettner, Klaus & Kuhn, Michael & Bloom, David E., 2021. "The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. Adriana Posada-López & Javier Enrique Botero & Ricardo Antonio Pineda-Tamayo & Andrés A. Agudelo-Suárez, 2022. "The Effect of Periodontal Treatment on Clinical and Biological Indicators, Quality of Life, and Oral Health in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients: A Quasi-Experimental Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, February.
    6. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    7. Kyunghwan Jung & Younglae Choi, 2023. "Factors Influencing Physical Activity and Exercise in Older Adults during COVID-19 in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, May.
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    9. Ben J. Heijdra & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Putting People Back into the Picture: Some Studies in Demographic Economics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 147-152, June.
    10. Simiao Chen & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner & David E Bloom, 2018. "The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Huan-Cheng Chang & Ting-Huan Chang & Hsiao-Yen Kang & Yu-Wei Chen & Sheng-Pyng Chen & Mei-Chin Wang & Jersey Liang, 2022. "Retention in Community Health Screening among Taiwanese Adults: A 9-Year Prospective Cohort Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-13, June.
    12. Bidzha, Mashudu Lucas & Ngepah, Nicholas & Greyling, Talita, 2024. "The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 368-387.
    13. Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Macro-level efficiency of health expenditure: Estimates for 15 major economies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    14. Pape Yona Boubacar Mane & Abdoulaye Diagne & Yao thibaut Kpegli, 2019. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Disease: Extension and Application in the context of Senegal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2904-2912.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-communicable diseases; Human capital; Health; Aggregate output; Ageing; East Asia; Economic burden of disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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