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Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth

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  • Boikos, Spyridon
  • Bucci, Alberto
  • Stengos, Thanasis

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between per capita human capital investment and the fertility rate. In the first part of the article we analyze a theoretical model with endogenous birth rate in which we do not make any assumption on how fertility directly affects per capita human capital accumulation. The results obtained in this model are then compared with those of a more traditional setting where the birth rate is exogenous and in which the direct effect of this variable on per capita human capital investment is monotonically negative, a rather standard assumption within the available theoretical literature. By using non-parametric techniques, we document the presence of a strong non-monotonicity in the total effect that fertility plays on human capital accumulation, and hence on economic growth. The non-monotonic effect of fertility on human capital appears to hold empirically for OECD, as well as non-OECD countries.

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  • Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2013. "Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 44-59.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:38:y:2013:i:pa:p:44-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.06.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2013. "Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 44-59.
    2. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:17:n:8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gilad Sorek & Bharat Diwakar, 2017. "Weak Scale Effects in Overlapping Generations Economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 962-969.
    4. repec:bla:germec:v:18:y:2017:i:2:p:182-211 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bla:scotjp:v:64:y:2017:i:3:p:263-282 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Reassessing Edgeworth’s conjecture when population dynamics is stochastic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 130-140.
    7. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Dynastic Altruism, Population Growth, and Economic Prosperity," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    8. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Life-Cycle Saving, Bequests, and the Role of Population in R&D-based Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    9. Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2016, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).
    10. Horst Feldmann, 2016. "The Long Shadows of Spanish and French Colonial Education," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 32-64, February.
    11. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Dynastic Altruism, Population, and R&D based Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2003-2009.
    12. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Human-Capital Spillover, Population, and Economic Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    13. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2016. "Why it pays off to pay us well: The impact of basic research on economic growth and welfare," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1075-1090.
    14. Bucci, Alberto & Eraydın, Levent & Müller, Moritz, 2018. "Dilution effects, population growth and economic growth under human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change," Working Paper Series in Economics 113, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Population growth; Economic growth; Human capital investment; Human capital dilution;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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