IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Growth vs level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

  • Raouf Boucekkine


    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579)

  • Blanca Martínez


    (Fundamentos del Análisis Económico - Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Ramon Ruiz-Tamarit


    (Department of Economic Analysis - Universitat de València - Universitat de Valeencia)

We study the impact of demographic change on economic short and long-term dynamics in an enlarged Lucas-Uzawa model with intratemporal altruism. Demographics are summarized by population growth rate and initial size. In contrast to the existing literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of variables along the balanced growth paths, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard growth effects. It is shown that the level effect of population growth is a priori ambiguous due to the interaction of three causation mechanisms, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard, featuring in particular the transmission of demographic shocks into human capital accumulation. Overall, the sign of the level effect of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, and on the initial conditions as well. In contrast, we prove that the long-run level effect of population size on per capita income is negative while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long-run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00632888.

in new window

Date of creation: 17 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00632888
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server:
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1995. "Utilitarian Tradeoff between Population Growth and Income Growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 81-87, February.
  2. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  3. Nerlove, Marc & Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1982. "Population size and the social welfare functions of Bentham and Mill," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 61-64.
  4. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
  5. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mulligan, Casey B & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics in Two-Sector Models of Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 739-73, August.
  7. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  8. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, . "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-11, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  9. Easterlin, Richard A, 1995. "Industrial Revolution and Mortality Revolution: Two of a Kind?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 393-408, December.
  10. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  12. Charles I. Jones, . "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," Working Papers 99001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  13. Momota, Akira, 2009. "A population-macroeconomic growth model for currently developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 431-453, February.
  14. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  15. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & RUIZ-TAMARIT, José Ramon, . "Special functions for the study of economic dynamics: The case of the Lucas-Uzawa model," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  16. Raouf Boucekkine & Blanca Martínez & José Ramón Ruiz-Tamarit, 2008. "Note on global dynamics and imbalance effects in the Lucas-Uzawa model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(4), pages 503-518.
  17. Canton, E.J.F. & Meijdam, A.C., 1997. "Altruism and the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes," Other publications TiSEM b843d800-b8b9-4e98-b9c8-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  18. Alberto Bucci, 2007. "Population Growth in a Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital Accumulation and Horizontal R&D," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1049, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
  19. Strulik, Holger, 2002. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 170, Royal Economic Society.
  20. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  21. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
  22. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  25. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
  26. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1998. "Malthus to Solow," NBER Working Papers 6858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Frederic Tournemaine, 2007. "Can population promote income per-capita growth? A balanced perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(8), pages 1-7.
  28. Palivos, Theodore, 1995. "Endogenous fertility, multiple growth paths, and economic convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1489-1510, November.
  29. Nerlove, Marc & Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1985. "Population Size: Individual Choice and Social Optima," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 321-34, May.
  30. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  31. Robert Tamura, 2002. "Human capital and economic development," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2002-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  32. Caballe, Jordi & Santos, Manuel S, 1993. "On Endogenous Growth with Physical and Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1042-67, December.
  33. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  34. Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2114, David K. Levine.
  35. Palivos, Theodore & Yip, Chong K., 1993. "Optimal population size and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 107-110.
  36. repec:chk:cuhked:_074 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Robertson, Peter E., 2002. "Demographic shocks and human capital accumulation in the Uzawa-Lucas model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 151-156, January.
  38. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri, 2013. "Assessing Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion within a canonical endogenous growth set-up," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 751-767, April.
  39. Amparo Castelló-Climent & Ana Hidalgo-Cabrillana, 2010. "Quality and quantity of education in the process of development," Economics Working Papers we1020, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  40. Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988. "Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  41. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January.
  42. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Giorgio FABBRI, 2010. "Assessing the Parfit's Repugnant Conclusion within a canonical endogenous growth set-up," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2010025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  43. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, 2001. " Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 187-203, September.
  44. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
  45. Charles I. Jones, . "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," Working Papers 99008, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  46. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  47. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  48. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 1993. "Changes in the wealth of nations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-16.
  49. Yip, Chong K. & Zhang, Junxi, 1996. "Population growth and economic growth: A reconsideration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 319-324, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00632888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.