IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China

  • Steven Lugauer


    (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame)

  • Nelson Mark


    (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame)

This paper studies how changing demographics can explain much of the evolution of China's household saving rate from 1955 to 2009. We undertake a quantitative investigation using an overlapping generations model in which agents live for 85 years. Agents begin to exercise decision making when they are 20. From age 20 to 63, they work. From age 20 to 49, they also provide for children. Dependent children's consumption enters into the parent's utility, and parents choose the consumption level of the young until they leave the household. Working agents transfer a portion of their labor income to their retired parents and save for their own retirement. Retirees live of of their accumulated assets and support from current workers. We present agents in the parameterized model with the future time-path of the demographics, interest rates and wages as given by the data and analyze their saving decisions. The simulated model accounts for nearly all the observed increase in the household saving rate from 1955 to 2009.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 007.

in new window

Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision: Jun 2012
Handle: RePEc:nod:wpaper:006
Contact details of provider: Postal: 434 Flanner Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556
Phone: (574) 631-7698
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Yang, Dennis T. & Chen, Vivian & Monarch, Ryan, 2010. "Rising Wages: Has China Lost Its Global Labor Advantage?," IZA Discussion Papers 5008, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511 - 564.
  3. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," Working Papers 09-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2012. "Sharing high growth across generations:pensions and demographic transition in China," CEPRA working paper 1203, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
  5. Henry Siu & Nir Jaimovich, 2006. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," 2006 Meeting Papers 815, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2011. "The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0821, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  7. repec:oup:qjecon:v:108:y:1993:i:3:p:809-42 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark & Chadwick R. Curtis, 2011. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," 2011 Meeting Papers 529, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
  10. Kai Liu & Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2010. "Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China," IMF Working Papers 10/289, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2010. "Aging And Saving In Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 46-55, 02.
  12. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the United States, the European Union, Japan, and China," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 133-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Japanese Saving Rate," Macroeconomics 0502017, EconWPA.
  15. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
  16. Chadwick C. Curtis & Nelson Mark, 2010. "Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?," NBER Working Papers 16154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988. "Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  18. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
  19. Mohsin S. Khan & Zuliu Hu, 1996. "Why is China Growing so Fast?," IMF Working Papers 96/75, International Monetary Fund.
  20. repec:oup:qjecon:v:118:y:2003:i:3:p:1075-1119 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Horag Choi & Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Trending Current Accounts," NBER Working Papers 15244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. repec:oup:qjecon:v:116:y:2001:i:3:p:969-1007 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Horag Choi & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2014. "Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households," NBER Working Papers 20527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Chadwick Curtis, . "Economic Reforms and the Evolution of China's Total Factor Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
  26. repec:oup:qjecon:v:124:y:2009:i:2:p:771-807 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. repec:oup:qjecon:v:124:y:2009:i:4:p:1403-1448 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Horag Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Endogenous Discounting, the World Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 13571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
  30. repec:cii:cepiei:2010-2ta is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China (AEJ:MA 2015) in ReplicationWiki

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nod:wpaper:006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Terence Johnson)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.