IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_6617.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Reyer Gerlagh
  • Richard Jaimes
  • Ali Motavasseli

Abstract

Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets and optimal climate policies. Our model replicates findings from the OLG-demography literature, such as a rise in households’ savings, and a declining rate of return to capital. We also find that demographic change raises the social cost of carbon, at 2020, from 28 euro/tCO2 in a model that abstracts from demography, to 94 euro/tCO2 in our calibrated model.

Suggested Citation

  • Reyer Gerlagh & Richard Jaimes & Ali Motavasseli, 2017. "Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6617, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6617.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    3. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dalton, Michael & O'Neill, Brian & Prskawetz, Alexia & Jiang, Leiwen & Pitkin, John, 2008. "Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 642-675, March.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 279-288, Part II, .
    7. de la Croix, David & Gosseries, Axel, 2012. "The natalist bias of pollution control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 271-287.
    8. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    9. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    10. Iverson , Terrence & Karp, Larry, 2017. "Carbon taxes and climate commitment with non-constant time preference," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt3hw6s14v, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    12. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2010. "Environmental Degradation, Longevity, and the Dynamics of Economic Development," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 59-73, May.
    13. Carlotta Balestra & Davide Dottori, 2012. "Aging society, health and the environment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1045-1076, July.
    14. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    15. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    16. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, B. C. C., 2001. "The effects of ageing and an environmental trust fund in an overlapping generations model on carbon emission reductions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 311-326, February.
    17. Howarth, Richard B, 1998. " An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate-Economy Interactions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 575-591, September.
    18. Erik Canton & Lex Meijdam, 1997. "Altruism and the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334.
    19. Pierre-André Jouvet & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2010. "Longevity and environmental quality in an OLG model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 100(3), pages 191-216, July.
    20. Gregory Casey & Oded Galor, 2016. "Is economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? Investigating the impacts of diminished population growth," Working Papers 2016-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    21. Tetsuo Ono, 2005. "The Political Economy of Environmental Taxes with an Aging Population," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 30(2), pages 165-194, February.
    22. Larry Karp & Armon Rezai, 2014. "The Political Economy Of Environmental Policy With Overlapping Generations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 711-733, August.
    23. Igor Fedotenkov & Bas Groezen & Lex Meijdam, 2014. "Demographic Change, International Trade and Capital Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 865-883, November.
    24. repec:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1968-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    26. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2016. "A simple formula for the social cost of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-94.
    27. Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-765, September.
    28. Giam Cipriani, 2014. "Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 251-256, January.
    29. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2015. "Robustness of a simple rule for the social cost of carbon," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 48-55.
    30. Eli P. Fenichel & Matthew J. Kotchen & Ethan T. Addicott, 2017. "Even the Representative Agent Must Die: Using Demographics to Inform Long-Term Social Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 23591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Martin L. Weitzman, 2013. "Tail-Hedge Discounting and the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 873-882, September.
    32. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 955-961, July.
    33. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Kai Zhao, 2017. "The Chinese Saving Rate: Long-Term Care Risks, Family Insurance, and Demographics," Working papers 2017-17, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    34. Quaas, Martin F. & Bröcker, Johannes, 2016. "Substitutability and the social cost of carbon in a solvable growth model with irreversible climate change," Economics Working Papers 2016-09, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    35. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    36. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    37. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    38. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    39. Michael D. Mastrandrea & Stephen H. Schneider, 2001. "Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 433-449, December.
    40. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
    41. Henning Bohn & Charles Stuart, 2015. "Calculation of a Population Externality," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-87, May.
    42. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Optimal Carbon Taxes with Non-Constant Time Preference," MPRA Paper 43264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Harford, Jon D, 1998. "The Ultimate Externality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 260-265, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; social cost of carbon; environmental policy; demographic trends;

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6617. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.