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On the impact of demographic change on growth, savings, and poverty

Author

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  • Ahmed, S. Amer
  • Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose

Abstract

Changing population age structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has been a matter of concern for upper-middle and high-income economies, rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the working-age shares of their population, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and estimates the association between changes in the share of working-age population with per capita growth, savings, and poverty rate. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to be associated with an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth by more than one percentage point, with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose, 2016. "On the impact of demographic change on growth, savings, and poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7805, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7805
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinem Kilic Celik & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2020. "Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Sibusiso Mkwananzi & Ololade Julius Baruwa, 2022. "Chasing the Youth Dividend in Nigeria, Malawi and South Africa: What Is the Role of Poverty in Determining the Health and Health Seeking Behaviour of Young Women?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-9, October.
    3. Jia, Wenxing & Lee, Hyoungsuk & Xie, Peijun & Li, Hui & Yang, Yang & Zhao, Xin, 2025. "Does urban shrinkage impact energy efficiency?: Evidence from Chinese counties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    4. Maliszewska, Maryla & Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Winters, Alan, 2016. "Cashing in the demographic dividend," Conference papers 332794, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.

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