Does urban shrinkage impact energy efficiency?: Evidence from Chinese counties

Some cities in China are facing challenges due to population loss while also attempting to address energy conservation and emissions reduction. Although urban shrinkage can relieve pressure from energy consumption demands, such as water, electricity and gas, does it improve urban energy efficiency? This study attempts to answer this question. Based on Point of Interest (POI) big data and Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) raster data, this study identifies urban shrinkage from the coupling perspective of administrative and economic boundaries. It also examines the impact of urban shrinkage on energy efficiency. The results suggest that Chinese counties’ overall energy efficiency is experiencing a four-stage "decline-rise-decline-rise" trend, and the urban shrinkage of Chinese counties exists in three major areas: the Northeast, the Southwest, and the Centre. Compared to non-shrinking cities, urban shrinkage has a significant negative impact on improving energy efficiency. This impact exhibits significant heterogeneity. Specifically, compared with mature resource cities and cities in Western China, regenerative cities, non-resource cities and cities in Central China have less impact on energy efficiency. In addition, urban shrinkage may impede energy efficiency improvement by hindering industrial structure transformation and upgrading, energy-saving technology innovation, and financial development. Clarifying the relationship between urban shrinkage and energy efficiency is helpful for shrinking cities to change their development strategies, which is critical for sustainable development.