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Assessment of landscape changes under different urban dynamics based on a multiple-scenario modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Xu

    (74549Dongguan University of Technology, China; Humboldt University Berlin, Germany)

  • Dagmar Haase

    (Humboldt University Berlin, Germany; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ, Germany)

  • Meirong Su

    (74549Dongguan University of Technology, China)

  • Yutao Wang

    (12478Fudan University, China)

  • Stephan Pauleit

    (Technical University of Munich, Germany)

Abstract

In the context of rapid urbanization, it remains unclear how urban landscape patterns shift under different urban dynamics, in particular taking different influencing factors of urban dynamics into consideration. In the present study, three key influencing factors were considered, namely, housing demand, spatial structure, and growth form. On this basis, multiple urban dynamic scenarios were constructed and then calculated using either an autologistic regression–Markov chain–based cellular automata model or an integer programming-based urban green space optimization model. A battery of landscape metrics was employed to characterize and quantitatively assess the landscape pattern changes, among which the redundancy was pre-tested and reduced using principal component analysis. The case study of the Munich region, a fast-growing urban region in southern Germany, demonstrated that the changes of the patch complexity index and the landscape aggregation index were largely similar at sub- and regional scales. Specifically, low housing demand, monocentric and compact growth scenarios showed higher levels of patch complexity but lower levels of landscape aggregation, compared to high housing demand, polycentric and sprawl growth scenarios, respectively. In contrast, the changes in the landscape diversity index under different scenarios showed contrasting trends between different sub-regional zones. The findings of this study provide planners and policymakers with a more in-depth understanding of urban landscape pattern changes under different urban planning strategies and its implications for landscape functions and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Xu & Dagmar Haase & Meirong Su & Yutao Wang & Stephan Pauleit, 2020. "Assessment of landscape changes under different urban dynamics based on a multiple-scenario modeling approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1361-1379, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:47:y:2020:i:8:p:1361-1379
    DOI: 10.1177/2399808320910161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dupras, Jerôme & Marull, Joan & Parcerisas, Lluís & Coll, Francesc & Gonzalez, Andrew & Girard, Marc & Tello, Enric, 2016. "The impacts of urban sprawl on ecological connectivity in the Montreal Metropolitan Region," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 61-73.
    2. Shiliang Su & Yue Gong & Bingqing Tan & Jianhua Pi & Min Weng & Zhongliang Cai, 2017. "Area Social Deprivation and Public Health: Analyzing the Spatial Non-stationary Associations Using Geographically Weighed Regression," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 819-832, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jieyong Wang & Xiaoyang Wang & Guoming Du & Haonan Zhang, 2022. "Temporal and Spatial Changes of Rural Settlements and Their Influencing Factors in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Haozhi Pan & Stan Geertman & Brian Deal, 2020. "What does urban informatics add to planning support technology?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1317-1325, October.
    3. Zipan Cai & Bo Wang & Cong Cong & Vladimir Cvetkovic, 2020. "Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1380-1396, October.
    4. Gül Aslı Aksu & Şermin Tağıl & Nebiye Musaoğlu & Emel Seyrek Canatanoğlu & Adnan Uzun, 2022. "Landscape Ecological Evaluation of Cultural Patterns for the Istanbul Urban Landscape," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-26, November.
    5. Raziyeh Teimouri & Rasoul Ghorbani & Pooran Karbasi & Ehsan Sharifi, 2023. "Investigation of land use changes using the landscape ecology approach in Maragheh City, Iran," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 271-284, June.

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