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Gone with the Wind: Demographic Transition and Domestic Saving

Author

Listed:
  • Cavallo, Eduardo

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Sanchez, Gabriel

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Valenzuela, Patricio

    (University of Chile)

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between demographic factors and saving rates using a panel dataset covering 110 countries between 1963 and 2012. In line with predictions from theory, this paper finds that lower dependency rates and greater longevity increase domestic saving rates. However, these effects are statistically robust only in Asia. In particular, Latin America, which is a region that has undergone a remarkably similar demographic transition, did not experience the same boost in saving rates as Asia. The paper highlights that the potential dividends arising from a favorable demographic transition are not automatically accrued. This is a sobering message at a time when the demographic tide is shifting in the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavallo, Eduardo & Sanchez, Gabriel & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2016. "Gone with the Wind: Demographic Transition and Domestic Saving," Working Papers 16-04, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:16-04
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    File URL: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/16/16-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    2. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    3. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
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    5. Taylor, Alan M., 1995. "Debt, dependence and the demographic Transition: Latin America in to the next century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 869-879, May.
    6. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Constanza Martínez Ventura, 2005. "Una revisión empírica sobre los determinantes del margen de intermediación en Colombia, 1989-2003," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 118-183, Junio.
    2. Marta Pascual-Sáez & David Cantarero-Prieto & María González-Diego, 2018. "Testing the effect of population ageing on national saving rates: panel data evidence from Europe," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1803, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    3. Friese, Max, 2017. "The interplay between trade unions and the social security system in an aging economy," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 148, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    4. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2005:i:48:p:118-183 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Livacic, Ernesto & Sáez, Sebastián, 2001. "The banking supervision agenda in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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