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Gone with the wind: Demographic transitions and domestic saving

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  • Eduardo Cavallo
  • Gabriel Sánchez
  • Patricio Valenzuela

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between demographic factors and saving rates using a panel dataset covering 110 countries between 1963 and 2012. In line with predictions from theory, this paper finds that, on average, lower dependency rates and greater longevity are associated with higher domestic saving rates. However, these correlations are statistically robust only in Asia. In particular, Latin America, which is a region that has undergone a remarkably similar “saving friendly” demographic transition since the 1970s, did not experience the same boost in saving rates as Asia. The paper highlights that the potential dividends arising from a favorable demographic transition are not automatically accrued. This is a sobering message at a time when the demographic tide is shifting in the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Cavallo & Gabriel Sánchez & Patricio Valenzuela, 2018. "Gone with the wind: Demographic transitions and domestic saving," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 1744-1764, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:22:y:2018:i:4:p:1744-1764
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, Alan M., 1995. "Debt, dependence and the demographic Transition: Latin America in to the next century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 869-879, May.
    2. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    3. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
    4. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    5. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    6. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    7. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    8. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Constanza Martínez Ventura, 2005. "Una revisión empírica sobre los determinantes del margen de intermediación en Colombia, 1989-2003," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 118-183, Junio.
    2. Friese, Max, 2017. "The interplay between trade unions and the social security system in an aging economy," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 148, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    3. Marta Pascual-Sáez & David Cantarero-Prieto & María González-Diego, 2018. "Testing the effect of population ageing on national saving rates: panel data evidence from Europe," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1803, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    4. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    5. Livacic, Ernesto & Sáez, Sebastián, 2001. "The banking supervision agenda in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2005:i:48:p:118-183 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Boldova Marzo, Daniel Miguel, 2022. "Análisis de la acumulación y distribución de la riqueza [Analysis of capital accumulation and weatlh distribution]," MPRA Paper 113582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    9. repec:idb:brikps:7677 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jorge M. Uribe, 2023. ""Fiscal crises and climate change"," IREA Working Papers 202303, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2023.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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