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Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan

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  • Hirose, Yasuo
  • Kurozumi, Takushi

Abstract

The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods to consumption goods in Japan suggests the existence of investment-specific technological (IST) changes. We examine whether IST changes are a major source of business fluctuations in Japan, by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian methods. We show that IST changes are less important than neutral technological changes in explaining output fluctuations. We also demonstrate that investment fluctuations are mainly driven by shocks to investment adjustment costs. Such shocks represent variations of costs involved in changing investment spending, such as financial intermediation costs. We then find that the estimated series of the investment adjustment cost shock correlates strongly with the diffusion index of firms' financial position in the Tankan (Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan). We thus argue that the large decline in investment growth in the early 1990s is due to an increase in investment adjustment costs stemming from firms' tight financial constraint after the collapse of Japan's asset price bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2011. "Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 32944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32944
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    Cited by:

    1. Takuji Fueki & Ichiro Fukunaga & Hibiki Ichiue & Toyoichiro Shirota, 2016. "Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan’s Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Kosuke Aoki & Nao Sudo, 2012. "Asset Portfolio Choice of Banks and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    3. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Takei, Ikuo & Ueda, Kozo, 2016. "Japan's financial crises and lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 31-46.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    5. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
    6. IIBOSHI Hirokuni, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A DSGE-DFM Approach," ESRI Discussion paper series 292, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Shingo Umino, 2013. "Re-evaluation of Japan's monetary policy in the late 1980s with the interest rate gap," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1027-1031, July.
    8. Go Kotera & Saisuke Sakai, 2017. "Complementarity between Merit Goods and Private Consumption: Evidence from estimated DSGE model for Japan," KIER Working Papers 978, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
    10. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    11. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Sudo, Nao, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
    12. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," CAMA Working Papers 2014-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Kosuke Aoki & Nao Sudo, 2013. "Bank’s regulation, asset portfolio choice of banks, and macroeconomic dynamics," CARF F-Series CARF-F-323, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    15. Atsushi Ishikawa & Koichiro Kamada & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Kentaro Nasu & Yuki Teranishi, 2012. "Introduction to the Financial Macro-econometric Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    16. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.
    17. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:484-505 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuation; Investment-specific technology; Investment adjustment cost shock; Financial intermediation cost; Firms' financial constraint;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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