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Inflation Dynamics and Labor Adjustments in Japan: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

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  • Hibiki Ichiue

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Takeki Sunakawa

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

Many studies of inflation dynamics assume that in the presence of competitive labor markets firms adjust labor input only at the intensive margin. We consider labor market search and examine the role of the extensive margin for inflation dynamics by estimating three models with distinct labor adjustments. Our Bayesian estimation result shows that the model with only the extensive margin is superior to that with only the intensive one in terms of marginal likelihood. This suggests that the extensive margin may be more important for inflation dynamics in Japan. We also show that introducing the intensive margin into the extensive margin model further improves marginal likelihood. Moreover, we find that real marginal costs in these models with the extensive margin are highly correlated with the Bank of Japan's estimates of the output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Hibiki Ichiue & Takushi Kurozumi & Takeki Sunakawa, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics and Labor Adjustments in Japan: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-9, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:08-e-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "Decreased Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan’s Aging Society," ADBI Working Papers 691, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    3. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    4. Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Shinichi Nishioka, 2016. "Does a Higher Frequency of Micro-level Price Changes Matter for Macro Price Stickiness?: Assessing the Impact of Temporary Price Changes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    5. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2020. "Forecasting the Inflation Rate in Poland and U.S. Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Google Queries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-34, July.
    6. Hibiki Ichiue & Takushi Kurozumi & Takeki Sunakawa, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics And Labor Market Specifications: A Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach For Japan'S Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 273-287, January.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    8. Takuji Fueki & Ichiro Fukunaga & Hibiki Ichiue & Toyoichiro Shirota, 2016. "Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan’s Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, March.
    9. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-44.
    10. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoko Hara & Satoko Kojima & Yoichi Ueno & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2011. "The Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM): 2011 Version," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    11. S Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 87-118.
    12. Tomiyuki Kitamura, 2010. "Measuring Monetary Policy Under Zero Interest Rates With a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: An Application of a Particle Filter," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    13. IWATA Yasuharu, 2009. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Japanese Economy: Do Non-Ricardian Households Explain All?," ESRI Discussion paper series 216, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. YANO Koiti, 2009. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Under a Liquidity Trap and Self-organizing State Space Modeling," ESRI Discussion paper series 206, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Richard Dennis & Oleg Kirsanov, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Preferences are Quasi-Hyperbolic," Working Papers 2020_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.
    17. YANO Koiti, 2010. "Time-varying Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," ESRI Discussion paper series 231, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Yasuharu Iwata, 2011. "The Government Spending Multiplier and Fiscal Financing: Insights from Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 231-264, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation dynamics; Marginal cost; Labor market search; Extensive margin; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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