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Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan

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  • Yoshino, Naoyuki
  • Miyamoto, Hiroaki

Abstract

This paper studies how population aging affects economic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households: workers and retirees. We demonstrate that an increase in the proportion of working population increases aggregate output, consumption, and investment by increasing total labor supply in the long run. It also increases wages and reduces the social security burden of the government. This paper also finds that the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies is weakened when the proportion of retirees becomes larger.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshino, Naoyuki & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:32-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2017.06.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.
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    5. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Kim, Myunghyun & Song, Sang-yoon, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy on consumption: Workers vs. retirees," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Daniel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkacsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/198, International Monetary Fund.
    8. MIyamoto Hiroaki & Yoshino Naoyuki, 2021. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Aging Economies," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2022. "Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 2206, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    10. Lu, Zhenkun & Kameda, Keigo, 2024. "Impact of fiscal policies on the labor market with search friction: An estimated DSGE model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Hiroshi Morita & Hidekazu Niwa, 2021. "An Effect of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy: Analysis using a panel VAR model," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Jianguo Zhao & Lei Zhang, 2023. "Fiscal Expenditure Efficiency Measurement and Its Convergence Analysis on Aging Undertakings in China: Based on a Global Super-Efficiency Slacks-Based Measure Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    14. Honda, Jiro & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2021. "How does population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Naoto Soma, 2021. "Evaluation of Japan’s Macro-Fiscal Policy and its Challenges," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(2), pages 1-28, November.
    16. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2023. "Evaluation of fiscal policy using alternative GDP data in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Yantao Ling & Zhe Song & Yang Yu & Tangyang Jiang, 2021. "Dealing with an aging China—Delaying retirement or the second-child policy?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, January.
    18. Óscar Ávila-Montealegre & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiromario & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2025. "Macroeconomic Effects of Healthcare Financing in Colombia," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 254(3), pages 59-85, September.
    19. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
    20. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    21. Zou, Baoling & Chen, Yudan & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2024. "Agricultural mechanization and the performance of the local Chinese economy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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