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The effectiveness of Japan's Negative Interest rate policy

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  • Yoshino, Naoyuki Yoshino
  • Hesary, Farhad Taghizadeh
  • Miyamoto, Hiroaki Miyamoto

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of zero and negative interest rate policy of Japan on the inflation rate and the role of exchange rate in conducting the zero and negative interest rate policy. The disappointing economic performance thus seems primarily due to a series of adverse economic shocks rather than an extraordinary policy error. The empirical analysis is based on, primarily, a stylized VAR model of the Japanese economy with the innovation that the interest rate policy, and the exchange rate—two important parameters for assessing the stance of monetary policy—are allowed to vary over time. Secondly, the estimated VAR model investigates whether alternative interest-rate policy approaches proposed in the literature could have improved macroeconomic performance. Though, Granger causality method has been used in the earlier literature to measure the causation of interest rate on inflation rate and it also used to see the block and instantaneous causality between the systems of variables. Next, using an estimated structural model, I identified a number of adverse shocks occurring after the 1990s. It thus follows that int. rate policy was not solely responsible for the stimulation neither in inflation growth performance nor in increasing the output growth. Aiming for a low inflation level and responding to the economy according to a conventional policy rule provided insufficient insurance against the contractionary shocks that occurred over the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshino, Naoyuki Yoshino & Hesary, Farhad Taghizadeh & Miyamoto, Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2018. "The effectiveness of Japan's Negative Interest rate policy," MPRA Paper 88084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 May 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi & Rosa Farboudmanesh, 2016. "Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-102, January.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    4. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Yoshikazu Kobayashi, 2016. "Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 33-51.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    6. Stefan Angrick & Naoko Nemoto, 2017. "Central banking below zero: the implementation of negative interest rates in Europe and Japan," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 417-443, December.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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    10. Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Ghahraman Abdoli & Asadollah Farzinvash, 2013. "An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 8(4), pages 571-591, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-44.
    2. Oliver de Groot & Alexander Haas, 2020. "The Negative Interest Rate Policy Experiment," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 7-12, April.
    3. Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Sayoko Shimizu, 2020. "The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2600-2621, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; Generalized and Orthogonalized impulse response; Granger causality; Unit root test;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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