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An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

Author

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  • Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary

    () (School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan; The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Tokyo 104-0054, Japan)

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan)

  • Ghahraman Abdoli
  • Asadollah Farzinvash

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556445, Iran)

Abstract

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Ghahraman Abdoli & Asadollah Farzinvash, 2013. "An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 8(4), pages 571-591, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:fec:journl:v:8:y:2013:i:4:p:571-591
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    File URL: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-002-013-0029-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Yoshikazu Kobayashi, 2016. "Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 33-51.
    3. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy," ADBI Working Papers 652, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2019. "Why is Green Finance Important ?," Working Papers id:12983, eSocialSciences.
    5. Musa Foudeh, 2017. "The Long Run Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: The Case of Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 171-192.
    6. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.
    7. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Alekhina, Victoriia, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades," ADBI Working Papers 982, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Inagaki, Yugo, 2018. "Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Price of Solar Modules," ADBI Working Papers 836, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Nour Tawk, 2017. "Decline of oil prices and the negative interest rate policy in Japan," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 233-250, April.
    10. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad & Nakahigashi, Masaki, 2019. "Modelling the social funding and spill-over tax for addressing the green energy financing gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-41.
    11. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014. "Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24520, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2016. "Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 23-47, March.
    13. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    14. Jibril, Halima & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2020. "Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2017. "Impact of Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on Oil-Consuming Sectors of Japan," ADBI Working Papers 659, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Chang, Youngho, 2019. "Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 39-68.
    18. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Three Arrows of “Abenomics” and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy," ADBI Working Papers 492, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Allah Morad Seif & Hossein Panahi & Davoud Hamidi Razi, 2017. "An Estimation of The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks on Iran-Russian Trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 469-497, Summer.
    20. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2018. "A new evidence from the effects of Russia’s WTO accession on its foreign trade," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(1), pages 73-92, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil; macroeconomic; trade linked case; Iran; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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