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An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

Author

Listed:
  • Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary

    () (School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan; The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Tokyo 104-0054, Japan)

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan)

  • Ghahraman Abdoli
  • Asadollah Farzinvash

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556445, Iran)

Abstract

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Ghahraman Abdoli & Asadollah Farzinvash, 2013. "An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 8(4), pages 571-591, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:fec:journl:v:8:y:2013:i:4:p:571-591
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    File URL: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-002-013-0029-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Yoshikazu Kobayashi, 2016. "Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 33-51.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:34-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2017. "Impact of Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on Oil-Consuming Sectors of Japan," ADBI Working Papers 659, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2019. "Why Is Green Finance Important?," ADBI Working Papers 917, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014. "Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24520, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2016. "Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 23-47, March.
    8. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Three Arrows of “Abenomics” and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy," ADBI Working Papers 492, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Finance Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy," ADBI Working Papers 652, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.
    12. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Inagaki, Yugo, 2018. "Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Price of Solar Modules," ADBI Working Papers 836, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. repec:eee:enepol:v:128:y:2019:i:c:p:796-806 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spr:eurase:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40822-017-0081-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2016. "Decline in Oil Prices and the Negative Interest Rate Policy in Japan," ADBI Working Papers 600, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil; macroeconomic; trade linked case; Iran; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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