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Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan's Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Takuji Fueki

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Ichiro Fukunaga

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Hibiki Ichiue

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Toyoichiro Shirota

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In this paper, we calculate the potential output and the output gap using a Bayesian-estimated DSGE model of Japan's economy. The model is a two-sector growth model that takes into account growth rate shocks including investment-goods sector-specific technological progress. For bridging the gap with conventional measures, we define our measure of potential output as a component of the efficient output generated only by growth rate shocks. Our potential growth displays a high degree of smoothness and moves closely with conventional measures. Moreover, the output gap from our measure of potential output has forecasting power for inflation. We analyze the sensitivity of our measure to the specifications of monetary policy rules, labor supply shocks, price and wage markup shocks, and technology shocks as well as the robustness with respect to data revisions and updates.

Suggested Citation

  • Takuji Fueki & Ichiro Fukunaga & Hibiki Ichiue & Toyoichiro Shirota, 2010. "Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:10-e-13
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential growth; Output gap; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Bayesian estimation; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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