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Do Banking Shocks Matter for the U.S. Economy?

Listed author(s):
  • Naohisa Hirakata

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: naohisa.hirakata@boj.or.jp))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

  • Kozo Ueda

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kouzou.ueda boj.or.jp))

Recent financial turmoil and existing empirical evidence suggest that adverse shocks to the financial intermediary (FI) sector cause substantial economic downturns. The quantitative significance of these shocks to the U.S. business cycle, however, has not received much attention up to now. To determine the importance of these shocks, we estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with what we describe as chained credit contracts. In this model, credit- constrained FIs intermediate funds from investors to credit-constrained entrepreneurs through two types of credit contract. Using Bayesian estimation, we extract the shocks to the FIs' net worth. The shocks are cyclical, typically negative during a recession, such as the one that began in 2007. Their effects are persistent, lowering economic activity for several quarters after the recessionary trough. According to the variance decomposition, shocks to the FI sector are a main source of the spread variations, explaining 39% of the FIs' borrowing spread and 23% of the entrepreneurial borrowing spread. At the same time, these shocks play an important but not dominant role for investment, accounting for 15% of its variations.

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File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/10-E-13.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 10-E-13.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-13
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  1. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Fleshing out the monetary transmission mechanism: output composition and the role of financial frictions," Working Paper Series 0500, European Central Bank.
  3. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
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  7. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2008. "The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks," Staff Working Papers 08-36, Bank of Canada.
  8. Charles Nolan & Christoph Thoenissen, 2008. "Financial shocks and the US business cycle," CDMA Working Paper Series 200810, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  9. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda, 2013. "Capital Injection, Monetary Policy, and Financial Accelerators," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 101-145, June.
  10. De Graeve, Ferre, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3415-3440, November.
  11. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  12. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda, 2009. "Chained Credit Contracts and Financial Accelerators," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-30, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  13. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1996. "The international transmission of financial shocks: the case of Japan," Working Papers 96-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  14. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Ueda, Kozo, 2011. "Do banking shocks matter for the U.S. economy?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 86, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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  17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  18. David Aikman & Matthias Paustian, 2006. "Bank capital, asset prices and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 305, Bank of England.
  19. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
  20. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  21. Kevin Moran & Cesaire Meh, 2004. "Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy," 2004 Meeting Papers 318, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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