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Do Banking Shocks Matter for the U.S. Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Naohisa Hirakata

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: naohisa.hirakata@boj.or.jp))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

  • Kozo Ueda

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kouzou.ueda boj.or.jp))

Abstract

Recent financial turmoil and existing empirical evidence suggest that adverse shocks to the financial intermediary (FI) sector cause substantial economic downturns. The quantitative significance of these shocks to the U.S. business cycle, however, has not received much attention up to now. To determine the importance of these shocks, we estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with what we describe as chained credit contracts. In this model, credit- constrained FIs intermediate funds from investors to credit-constrained entrepreneurs through two types of credit contract. Using Bayesian estimation, we extract the shocks to the FIs' net worth. The shocks are cyclical, typically negative during a recession, such as the one that began in 2007. Their effects are persistent, lowering economic activity for several quarters after the recessionary trough. According to the variance decomposition, shocks to the FI sector are a main source of the spread variations, explaining 39% of the FIs' borrowing spread and 23% of the entrepreneurial borrowing spread. At the same time, these shocks play an important but not dominant role for investment, accounting for 15% of its variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo & Kozo Ueda, 2010. "Do Banking Shocks Matter for the U.S. Economy?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Financial Accelerators; Financial Intermediaries; Chained Credit Contracts;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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