Do banking shocks matter for the U.S. economy?
The quantitative significance of shocks to the financial intermediary (FI) has not received much attention up to now. We estimate a DSGE model with what we describe as chained credit contracts, using Bayesian technique. In the model, credit-constrained FIs intermediate funds from investors to credit-constrained entrepreneurs through two types of credit contract. We find that the shocks to the FIs' net worth play an important role in the investment dynamics, accounting for 17% of its variations. In particular, in the Great Recession, they are the key determinants of the investment declines, accounting for 36% of the variations.
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