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Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty

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  • Nathan S. Balke
  • Enrique Martinez-Garcia
  • Zheng Zeng

Abstract

We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. To do so, uncertainty is modeled as time-varying stochastic volatitlity - the product of monetary policy uncertainty, financial risk (micro-uncertainty), and macrouncertainty. The model is solved using a pruned third-order approximation and estimated by the Simulated Method of Moments. We find that: 1) Micro-uncertainty aggravates the information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers, worsens credit conditions, and has first-order effects on real economic activity. 2) When credit conditions are poor, as indicated by elevated credit spreads, additional micro-uncertainty shocks produce even larger real effects. 3) Poor credit conditions notably affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy amplifying the real effects of monetary shocks while mitigating the economic boost from TFP shocks. 4) While macro-uncertainty and policy uncertainty exert relatively little direct impact on aggregate economic activity, policy uncertainty accounts for around 40% of the business cycle volatility by affecting the size of monetary policy shocks in the presence of nominal rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan S. Balke & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Zheng Zeng, 2017. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty," Globalization Institute Working Papers 317, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:317
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp317r1
    Note: Original paper and supplement were published in June 2017. Revised paper and supplement were published in October 2019.
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    2. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03160370, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Accelerator; Stochastic Volatility; Monetary Policy Transmission; Nominal Rigidities; Perturbation Methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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