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Time Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel

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  • Kevin D. Salyer
  • Gabriel Lee

Abstract

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearization methods can be used to solve the model yet second moments enter the economy's equilibrium policy functions. We then demonstrate that an increase in uncertainty causes, ceteris paribus, a fall in investment supply. A second key result is that time varying uncertainty results in countercyclical bankruptcy rates - a finding which is consistent with the data and opposite the result in Carlstrom and Fuerst. Third, we show that persistence of uncertainty affects both quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of the economy. However, the shocks to uncertainty imply a quantitatively small role for uncertainty over the business cycle.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kevin D. Salyer & Gabriel Lee, 2002. "Time Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 137, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:137
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    1. Stepahnie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 5, pages 125-186 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
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    4. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    6. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
    7. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    8. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    9. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L., 1995. "Liquidation costs and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-69, September.
    10. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "A Higher-Order Taylor Expansion Approach to Simulation of Stochastic Forward-Looking Models with an Application to a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 17(2-3), pages 125-139, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2012. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1262-1286, December.
    2. Dorofeenko, Victor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2014. "Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 194-219.
    3. Mehkari, M. Saif, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks in a model with mean-variance frontiers and endogenous technology choices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-98.
    4. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ruediger Bachmann & Peter Zorn, 2013. "What Drives Aggregate Investment? Evidence from German Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 4218, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Ruediger Bachmann, 2015. "What Drives Aggregate Investment?," 2015 Meeting Papers 323, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Gabriel Lee & Victor Dorofeenko & Kevin Salyer, "undated". "Risk Shocks and Housing Markets," Working Papers 1011, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Clark, Gregory & Cummins, Neil, 2010. "Malthus to Modernity: England’s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800," MPRA Paper 25465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Grimme, Christian & Siemsen, Thomas, 2014. "Are You a Lehman, Brother? Interbank Uncertainty in a DSGE Model," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100498, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Sanjay Chugh, 2016. "Firm Risk and Leverage-Based Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 111-131, April.
    11. Viktor Dorofeenko & Gabriel S. Lee & Kevin D. Salyer, 2011. "Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis‐Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 151-169, May.
    12. Dorofeenko, Viktor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2005. "Agency Costs and Investment Behavior," Economics Series 182, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    13. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
    14. Anh Nguyen, 2015. "Financial frictions and the volatility of monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Papers 75949436, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio, 2014. "Uncertainty in a model with credit frictions," Bank of England working papers 496, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agency costs; business cycles; time varying uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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