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Risk Shocks and Housing Markets

Listed author(s):
  • Dorofeenko, Victor

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)

  • Lee, Gabriel S.

    (IREBS, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany, and Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)

  • Salyer, Kevin D.

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, USA)

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for the business cycle. Also, we demonstrate that bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices; as a consequence, the volatility of housing prices is greater than that of output, as observed in the data. The model can also account for the observed countercyclical behavior of risk premia on loans to the housing sector.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-249.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 249.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:249
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Order Information: Postal: Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria

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  1. Kevin D. Salyer & Gabriel Lee, 2002. "Time Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 137, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Timothy S. Fuerst & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1998. "Agency costs and business cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 583-597.
  3. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
  4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really uncertain business cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
  6. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2007. "Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 141-168.
  8. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
  9. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
  11. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  12. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
  13. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
  14. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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