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Systemic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?

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  • Laséen, Stefan
  • Pescatori, Andrea
  • Turunen, Jarkko

Abstract

We introduce time-varying systemic risk (à la He and Krishnamurthy, 2014) in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether simple leaning-against-the-wind interest rate rules can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that while financial sector leverage contains additional information about the state of the economy that is not captured in inflation and output leaning against financial variables can only marginally improve welfare because rules are detrimental in the presence of falling asset prices. An optimal macroprudential policy, similar to a counter cyclical capital requirement, can eliminate systemic risk raising welfare by about 1.5%. Also, a surprise monetary policy tightening does not necessarily reduce systemic risk, especially during bad times. Finally, a volatility paradox a la Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014) arises when monetary policy tries to excessively stabilize output.

Suggested Citation

  • Laséen, Stefan & Pescatori, Andrea & Turunen, Jarkko, 2017. "Systemic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 70-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:70-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2017.08.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Itai Agur & Maria Demertzis, 2015. "Will Macroprudential Policy Counteract Monetary Policy’s Effects on Financial Stability?," IMF Working Papers 15/283, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Endogenous financial risk; DSGE models; Non-linear dynamics; Policy evaluation;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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