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The Risk Channel of Monetary Policy

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  • Oliver DeGroot

Abstract

This paper examines how monetary policy affects the riskiness of the financial sector's aggregate balance sheet, a mechanism referred to as the risk channel of monetary policy. I study the risk channel in a DSGE model with nominal frictions and a banking sector that can issue both outside equity and debt, making banks' exposure to risk an endogenous choice, and dependent on the (monetary) policy environment. Banks' equilibrium portfolio choice is determined by solving the model around a risk-adjusted steady state. I find that banks reduce their reliance on debt finance and decrease leverage when monetary policy shocks are prevalent. A monetary policy reaction function that responds to movements in bank leverage or to movements in credit spreads can incentivize banks to increase their use of debt finance and increase leverage, ceteris paribus, increasing the riskiness of the financial sector for the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver DeGroot, 2014. "The Risk Channel of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-31
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pozo, Jorge & Rojas, Youel, 2021. "Unconventional Credit Policy in an Economy under Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2021-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Elena Afanasyeva & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Lending Standards, Credit Booms and Monetary Policy," Economics working papers 2014-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Abbate, Angela & Thaler, Dominik, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy with the risk-taking channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Angela Abbate & Dominik Thaler, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Asset Risk‐Taking Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2115-2144, December.
    7. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Körner, Jenny & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2019. "Empowering central bank asset purchases: The role of financial policies," Working Paper Series 2237, European Central Bank.
    8. Pozo, Jorge, 2019. "Capital Flows and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 2019-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Sandra Eickmeier & Norbert Metiu & Esteban Prieto, 2016. "Time-varying volatility, financial intermediation and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2016-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Koray Alper & Mahir Binici & Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu, 2014. "Reserve Requirements, Liquidity Risk, and Credit Growth," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1416, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    11. van der Kwaak, Christiaan & Madeira, João & Palma, Nuno, 2023. "The long-run effects of risk: an equilibrium approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Nöckel, Matthias, 2018. "The risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 71-91.
    13. Dario Bonciani & David Gauthier & Derrick Kanngiesser, 2023. "Slow Recoveries, Endogenous Growth and Macro-prudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 698-715, December.
    14. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    15. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Miguel Molico & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research," Discussion Papers 15-7, Bank of Canada.
    16. Laséen, Stefan & Pescatori, Andrea & Turunen, Jarkko, 2017. "Systemic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 70-85.
    17. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol, 2022. "Does the choice of monetary policy tool matter for systemic risk? The curious case of negative interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "The distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso & Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Solange Maria Guerra, 2016. "Systemic Risk-Taking Channel of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 412, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
    22. Pozo, Jorge, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical leverage buffers on macroeconomic and financial stability," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 194-217.
    23. Deák, Szabolcs & Levine, Paul & Mirza, Afrasiab & Pearlman, Joseph, 2025. "All models are wrong but all can be useful: Robust policy design using prediction pools," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    24. H. Semih Yildirim & Mortaza Baky Haskuee, 2025. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on banks' systemic risk in canada," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(1), pages 141-175, March.
    25. Jens Fittje, 2023. "Risk-shifting, concentration risk, and heterogeneous borrowers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 509-536, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial intermediation; portfolio choice; debt and equity; monetary policy; risk-adjusted steady state;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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