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Time-varying Volatility, Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra
  • Metiu, Norbert
  • Prieto, Esteban

Abstract

We document that expansionary monetary policy shocks are less effective at stimulating output and investment in periods of high volatility compared to periods of low volatility, using a regime-switching vector autoregression. Exogenous policy changes are identified by adapting an external instruments approach to the non-linear model. The lower effectiveness of monetary policy can be linked to weaker responses of credit costs, suggesting a financial accelerator mechanism that is weaker in high volatility periods. To rationalize our robust empirical results, we use a macroeconomic model in which financial intermediaries endogenously choose their capital structure. In the model, the leverage choice of banks depends on the volatility of aggregate shocks. In low volatility periods, financial intermediaries lever up, which makes their balance sheets more sensitive to aggregate shocks and the financial accelerator more effective. On the contrary, in high volatility periods, banks decrease leverage, which renders the financial accelerator less effective; this in turn decreases the ability of monetary policy to improve funding conditions and credit supply, and thereby to stimulate the economy. Hence, we provide a novel explanation for the non-linear effects of monetary stimuli observed in the data, linking the effectiveness of monetary policy to the procyclicality of leverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickmeier, Sandra & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Time-varying Volatility, Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-19-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
    2. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    3. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6821, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2016-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; credit spread; non-linearity; intermediary leverage; financial accelerator;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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