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Time-varying business volatility, price setting, and the real effects of monetary policy

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Born, Benjamin
  • Elstner, Steffen
  • Grimme, Christian

Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the price setting behavior of firms. In a second step, we use a calibrated New Keynesian business cycle model to gauge the effects of time-varying volatility on the transmission of monetary policy to output. Our results are twofold. Heightened business volatility increases the probability of a price change, though the effect is small: the tripling of volatility during the recession of 08/09 caused the average quarterly likelihood of a price change to increase from 31.6% to 32.3%. Second, the effects of this increase in volatility on monetary policy are also small; the initial effect of a 25 basis point monetary policy shock to output declines from 0.347% to 0.341%.

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Paper provided by German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in its series Working Papers with number 01/2013.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:012013
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  1. Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2007. "When Do Firms Adjust Prices? Evidence from Micro Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-160, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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  4. Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner, 2013. "Firms' Optimism and Pessimism," CESifo Working Paper Series 4176, CESifo Group Munich.
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  7. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904, August.
  8. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 47, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  12. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2012. "Financial frictions and fluctuations in volatility," Staff Report 466, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Gilchrist, Simon & Sim, Jae W. & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  17. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:215-258 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Joseph S. Vavra, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 19148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  28. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
  29. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
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