IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v40y2008i5p967-999.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • YASUO HIROSE

Abstract

This paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in Japan using an estimated financial accelerator model. For explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots, the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate. We show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large. According to our Bayesian estimation results, Japan's economy was affected by sunspot shocks; however, the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low. Rather, net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation. We find, however, that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 967-999, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:5:p:967-999
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00143.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 530-533, March.
    4. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2003. "Spurious welfare reversals in international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 471-500, August.
    5. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    7. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    8. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    9. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," Working Papers 279, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. G. M. Martin & C. S. Forbes, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development and communication: some comments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 113-118.
    11. Hitoshi Fuchi & Ichiro Muto & Hiroshi Ugai, 2005. "A Historical Evaluation of Financial Accelerator Effects in Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    12. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    13. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2003. "Sunspot Fluctuations in Asset Prices and Business Cycles in Japan Over 1986-1999," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 253-274.
    15. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    16. Dupor, Bill, 2001. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 85-113, May.
    17. Queijo, Virginia, 2005. "How Important are Financial Frictions in the U.S. and Euro Area?," Seminar Papers 738, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    18. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    19. W. E. Griffiths, 1999. "Estimating consumer surplus comments on "using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference development and communication"," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 75-87.
    20. Ichiro Fukunaga, 2002. "Financial Accelerator Effects in Japan's Business Cycles," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    21. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    23. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 524-529, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    2. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Forecastability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 243-251, February.
    3. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," CAMA Working Papers 2014-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    5. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Research Working Paper RWP 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    8. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
    9. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    10. IIBOSHI Hirokuni, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A DSGE-DFM Approach," ESRI Discussion paper series 292, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Yasuharu Iwata, 2011. "The Government Spending Multiplier and Fiscal Financing: Insights from Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 231-264, June.
    12. repec:syd:wpaper:2123/8187 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
    14. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
    15. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers 121301, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    16. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.
    17. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:5:p:967-999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.