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Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation

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  • YASUO HIROSE

Abstract

This paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in Japan using an estimated financial accelerator model. For explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots, the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate. We show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large. According to our Bayesian estimation results, Japan's economy was affected by sunspot shocks; however, the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low. Rather, net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation. We find, however, that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00143.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (08)
Pages: 967-999

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:5:p:967-999
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  16. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 530-533, March.
  17. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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Cited by:

  1. repec:syd:wpaper:2123/8187 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2010. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-12, Bank of Japan.
  3. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hirose, Yasuo, 2011. "Indeterminacy and forecastability," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 91, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  4. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2011. "Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 32944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," CAMA Working Papers 2014-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers 121301, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  7. Yasuharu Iwata, 2011. "The Government Spending Multiplier and Fiscal Financing: Insights from Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 231-264, 06.
  8. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
  9. IIBOSHI Hirokuni, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A DSGE-DFM Approach," ESRI Discussion paper series 292, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
  12. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
  13. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  14. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.

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