IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations

  • Airaudo, Marco
  • Cardani, Roberta
  • Lansing, Kevin J.

We present a heterogeneous agents New-Keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission. Constant turnover between long-time traders and newcomers in market activities, combined with restricted trading opportunities, introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity, making stock prices non-redundant for the business cycle. We show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy, even if the policy rule satisfies the Taylor principle. A belief-driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in U.S. data. This result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid-to-late 1990s was the result of waves of (rational) exuberance and pessimism in financial markets. Our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank's policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non-fundamental volatility.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016518891300047X
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1453-1478

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1453-1478
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Marvin Goodfriend & Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Banking and Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Analysis: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 13207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Martin Uribe & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy In A Medium Scale Macro Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 476, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & David Lãpez-Salido, 2008. "Monetary Aggregates and Liquidity in a Neo-Wicksellian Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1667-1698, December.
  5. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2013. "Risk Shocks," NBER Working Papers 18682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," CQER Working Paper 2010-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
  8. Llosa Gonzalo & Tuesta Vicente, 2007. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when the Cost Channel Matters," Working Papers 2007-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  9. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit spreads and monetary policy," Staff Reports 385, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 499, Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift," Working Paper Series 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  13. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 1999. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 2315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2003. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," BIS Working Papers 139, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2006. "Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1327-1339, October.
  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  17. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2011. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEP Discussion Papers dp1077, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  18. Roger Aliaga‐Díaz & María Pía Olivero, 2010. "Macroeconomic Implications of “Deep Habits” in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1495-1521, December.
  19. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
  20. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
  21. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  22. Benhabib, Jess & Wen, Yi, 2001. "Indeterminacy, Aggregate Demand, and the Real Business Cycle," Working Papers 01-09r, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  23. Surico, Paolo, 2008. "The Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy And Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 724-735, November.
  24. Matthias Paustian & Christian Stoltenberg, 2006. "Optimal Interest Rate Stabilization in a Basic Sticky-Price Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-072, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  25. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, . "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," CDMA Working Paper Series 201010, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Apr 2010.
  27. Freedman, Charles & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Mursula, Susanna, 2010. "Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 506-526, July.
  28. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2011. "Bubbles and Total Factor Productivity," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-030, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  29. Joseph Atta-Mensah & Ali Dib, 2003. "Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy," Working Papers 03-9, Bank of Canada.
  30. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2004. "Asset prices, nominal rigidities, and monetary policy," Working Paper 0413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  31. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  32. Cella, Cristina & Ellul, Andrew & Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2010. "Investors' horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 8083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2009. "Inflation persistence," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  35. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2008. "Determinacy, Stock Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy Inertia," Discussion Papers 08-30, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  36. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
  37. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  38. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0128, European Central Bank.
  39. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  40. Lubik, Thomas A. & Marzo, Massimiliano, 2007. "An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-36.
  41. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March.
  42. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  43. Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Stock-Price Dynamics in a DSGE Framework," CSEF Working Papers 307, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  44. Efrem Castelnuovo & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Stock Market Conditions and Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model for the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0107, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  45. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in Europe and the US: Monetary policy after the financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 323-338, May.
  46. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  47. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Wang, Yanzhi, 2012. "Financial constraints and share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 311-331.
  48. Skander J. Van den Heuvel, 2002. "Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 259-265.
  49. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
  50. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  52. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
  53. repec:syd:wpaper:2123/8187 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Filippo Altissimo & Evaggelia Georgiou & Teresa Sastre & Maria Teresa Valderrama & Gabriel Sterne & Marc Stocker & Mark Weth & Karl Whelan & Alpo Willman, 2005. "Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity," Occasional Paper Series 29, European Central Bank.
  56. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  57. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  58. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  61. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  62. Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "The effects of wealth bubbles on consumption," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1453-1478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.