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Sunspot Fluctuations in Asset Prices and Business Cycles in Japan Over 1986–1999

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  • Tomoyuki Nakajima

Abstract

If individuals receive utility directly from the value of their wealth, equilibrium may be indeterminate so that sunspot equilibria may exist. In such an equilibrium, the price of an asset may fluctuate stochastically, as a result of spontaneous revisions of agents’ expectations. A neoclassical growth model with such a utility function is used to show that those fluctuations in asset prices can generate co‐movement among output, consumption and investment, even without assuming non‐convex technology. In particular, numerical results show that the model can replicate well the business cycles in Japan over the period 1986–1999.

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  • Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2003. "Sunspot Fluctuations in Asset Prices and Business Cycles in Japan Over 1986–1999," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 253-274, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:54:y:2003:i:3:p:253-274
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5876.00258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1998. "Stock market and investment good prices: implications of macroeconomics," Working Paper Series WP-98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    3. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, "undated". "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 494, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    4. Christopher D Carroll, 1997. "Why Do the Rich Save So Much?," Economics Working Paper Archive 388, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "The spirit of capitalism and expectation-driven business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 739-752, September.
    2. Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 967-999, August.
    3. Marco Airaudo, 2017. "Complex stock price dynamics under Max Weber’s spirit of capitalism hypothesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 47-73, June.
    4. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
    5. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2008. "The spirit of capitalism, stock market bubbles and output fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 3-28, March.
    6. Yasutaka Ogawa & Jiro Yoshida, 2024. "Aging, Housing, and Macroeconomic Inefficiency," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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